MX23RW : Saturday, May 4 06:13:07| >> :120:70058:70058:
[monks data]
Derby logo
Championship | Gameweek 46
May 7, 2022 at 12.30pm UK
Pride Park
Cardiff City logo

Derby
0 - 1
Cardiff


Thompson (73')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Hugill (55')
Ng (69'), Harris (81')

Preview: Derby County vs. Cardiff City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Derby County and Cardiff City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Derby County will bring the curtain down on their 14-year stay in the Championship with a home game against Cardiff City.

The Rams – who have been deducted 21 points this season – are already relegated, while the Bluebirds sit 18th in the table.


Match preview

Derby County's Ravel Morrison celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on March 5, 2022© Reuters

Derby have spent almost the entire campaign in administration, with the future of the club constantly up in the air while Wayne Rooney's side fought against relegation.

Without their deduction, the Rams would have avoided the drop comfortably and be sat 17th in the table; a remarkable achievement considering their squad is mostly made up of academy graduates and ageing veterans.

There does seem to be light at the end of the tunnel off the pitch, with preferred bidder Chris Kirchner hopeful of completing his takeover in the coming days.

On the pitch, the Rams are aiming to end the season on a high and won 2-0 against Blackpool last weekend thanks to first senior goals for Malcolm Ebiowei and Eiran Cashin.

Derby have not won back-to-back games in 2022, but have taken 10 points from the last 15 available at home and have only suffered four defeats at Pride Park all season.

Cardiff City manager Steve Morison on January 30, 2022© Reuters

Cardiff can finish no higher than 17th in the table, guaranteeing the club's lowest placing since they were promoted from the third tier 19 years ago.

The Bluebirds were involved in the relegation scrap themselves in the first half of the campaign, but had steered themselves away from any danger by mid-February.

Steve Morison's side are ending the season with a whimper – their 1-1 draw against Birmingham City last weekend ended a run of four consecutive defeats. It is the club's worst run of form since the eight defeats in a row that cost Mick McCarthy his job in October.

The Welsh outfit have suffered three straight defeats on the road, but are unbeaten in their last five meetings against Derby.

Uche Ikpeazu scored the only goal of the game in the 85th minute as Cardiff won 1-0 in this season's reverse fixture in South Wales in March.

Derby County Championship form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W

Cardiff City Championship form:
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D



Team News

Derby County manager Wayne Rooney on February 23, 2022© Reuters

Derby will be able to welcome back captain Tom Lawrence for the final day of the season following the Welsh international's two-match suspension.

Midfielder Krystian Bielik is also in contention to return for the Rams after missing the last two games with a groin injury.

Thirty-seven-year-old Curtis Davies has played every minute in the Championship this season and was named Derby's player of the year this week.

As he continues to plan for next season, Cardiff boss Steve Morison may leave out loanees Tommy Doyle and Jordan Hugill from his team.

Nineteen-year-old Eli King was handed only a second league start last weekend and could feature again, while fellow academy graduate Rubin Colwill may also play from the off.

Left-back Joel Bagan has missed the last two games through injury so is a doubt, while on the other side of defence, 18-year-old Jai Semenyo will hope to earn a debut after being named in the matchday squad in Bagan's absence.

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Roos; Byrne, Davies, Cashin, Forsyth; Bird, Watson; Ebiowei, Morrison, Knight; Cybulski

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Phillips; Drameh, McGuinness, Nelson, Denham, Ng; Wintle, Vaulks, Colwill; Harris, Watters


SM words green background

We say: Derby County 1-0 Cardiff City

Derby may be dropping out of the Championship, but Rooney and his players are doing so with plenty of pride and we think the Rams will end on a high with victory on home turf. Only Barnsley are on worse form than Cardiff and the Bluebirds are unlikely to put up much of a fight.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 46.7%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 27.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Derby vs Cardiff

Derby County
71.0%
Draw
6.5%
Cardiff City
22.6%
31
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Derby County manager Wayne Rooney after the match on March 1, 2022
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