Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 48.27%. A win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 28.13% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Helmond Sport win was 2-1 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.