EFL Cup | Second Round
Aug 23, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Abbey Stadium
We said: Cambridge United 0-3 Southampton
The Saints have not lost a second-round EFL Cup encounter away from home since 2005-06, when it was known as the Carling Cup, failing to concede on the road at this stage since 2013-14.
Cambridge have not fared well at this point of the tournament for a long time, and that was primarily against second or third-tier sides, so we do not expect them to trouble a Southampton team who had 12 different players score in the Premier League last season, while another eight had at least one assist.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 52.79%. A win for Cambridge United had a probability of 24.34% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.04%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Cambridge United win was 2-1 (6.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-3 win for Southampton in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Southampton.
| Result |
| Cambridge United | Draw | Southampton |
24.34% ( 0.01) | 22.86% ( 0.01) | 52.79% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 58.1% ( -0.03) |
| 57.91% ( -0.05) | 42.08% ( 0.04) |
| 35.51% ( -0.05) | 64.48% ( 0.04) |
| 69.14% ( -0.02) | 30.86% ( 0.01) |
