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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 62.27%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 19.05% and a draw had a probability of 18.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.45%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (4.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Heracles |
62.27% ( 0.02) | 18.69% ( 0.02) | 19.05% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 65.52% ( -0.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
71.02% ( -0.17) | 28.98% ( 0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
50.05% ( -0.21) | 49.95% ( 0.21) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.92% ( -0.04) | 9.08% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.14% ( -0.11) | 30.85% ( 0.11) |
Heracles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.06% ( -0.15) | 27.94% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.43% ( -0.19) | 63.57% ( 0.19) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Heracles |
2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.45% 2-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 6.09% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 5.84% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 4.47% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 2.14% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.68% 5-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) Other @ 4.32% Total : 62.27% | 1-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.94% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.44% Total : 18.69% | 1-2 @ 4.95% 0-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.06% ( 0) Other @ 4.18% Total : 19.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
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