Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.36%. A win for Girona had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Girona win was 1-2 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Girona |
50.36% ( -0.04) | 23.12% ( 0.01) | 26.53% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 59.51% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.75% ( -0.02) | 41.25% ( 0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.36% ( -0.03) | 63.64% ( 0.03) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.47% ( -0.02) | 16.53% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.72% ( -0.04) | 46.28% ( 0.05) |
Girona Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.29% ( 0.01) | 28.71% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.47% ( 0.01) | 64.53% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Girona |
2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.54% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.69% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.76% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.61% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.59% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.59% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.08% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.62% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 3.36% Total : 50.36% | 1-1 @ 10.65% 2-2 @ 5.99% 0-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.5% ( -0) Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.11% | 1-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.92% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.7% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.77% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.49% 0-3 @ 1.54% ( 0) Other @ 3.46% Total : 26.53% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 84 |
2 | Barcelona | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 39 | 29 | 73 |
3 | GironaGirona | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 71 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 33 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 64 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 61 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 51 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 33 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Valencia | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 43 |
11 | Osasuna | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 39 |
12 | AlavesAlaves | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
13 | Sevilla | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 38 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 37 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 34 |
16 | Mallorca | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 31 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 33 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 26 |
19 | Granada | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 33 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 67 | -35 | 14 |
> La Liga Full Table |