El Submarino Amarillo have only won one of their last five matches versus Vallecano, but they do not have any problems finding the back of the net against the Segunda Division winners from last season, averaging 2.8 goals per game in their previous six home fixtures against them in La Liga.
Los Vallecanos have a lot of momentum and a desire to be right up there with the top teams in Spain, and even though they have struggled away from home, they have plenty of quality to put a couple past Villarreal, who are not feeling great about their form domestically at the moment.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 47.62%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 26.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
