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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.96%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 23.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Barnsley |
51.96% ( 0.02) | 24.59% ( 0) | 23.45% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 51.46% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.61% ( -0.02) | 50.39% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.67% ( -0.01) | 72.32% ( 0.01) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.62% ( 0) | 19.37% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.83% | 51.17% |
Barnsley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.83% ( -0.02) | 36.17% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.04% ( -0.02) | 72.95% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Barnsley |
1-0 @ 11.5% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.6% 2-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.25% 3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.67% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.16% 4-0 @ 2.12% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.97% Total : 51.96% | 1-1 @ 11.69% 0-0 @ 7.01% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.58% | 0-1 @ 7.13% 1-2 @ 5.95% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.62% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.02% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.65% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.23% ( -0) Other @ 1.86% Total : 23.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |