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Serie A | Gameweek 28
Mar 10, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Roma logo

Fiorentina
2 - 2
Roma

Ranieri (18'), Mandragora (69')
Bonaventura (57'), Milenkovic (64')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Aouar (58'), Llorente (90+5')
Mancini (6'), Paredes (37'), Huijsen (45'), N'Dicka (68'), Baldanzi (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Fiorentina and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: M. Haifa 3-4 Fiorentina
Thursday, March 7 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Roma 4-0 Brighton
Thursday, March 7 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Fiorentina 1-1 Roma

A repeat of the result in December's reverse fixture could be on the cards, as Fiorentina are far tougher to beat on home turf and Roma do not always produce their best outside the capital. The Giallorossi's rapid progress may therefore hit a minor bump in the road. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 45.46%. A win for Roma had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (8.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
FiorentinaDrawRoma
45.46% (0.246 0.25) 26.07% (0.049000000000003 0.05) 28.46% (-0.295 -0.3)
Both teams to score 51.32% (-0.342 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.29% (-0.353 -0.35)52.7% (0.353 0.35)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.65% (-0.305 -0.31)74.34% (0.303 0.3)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.87% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)23.12% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.01% (-0.053999999999995 -0.05)56.98% (0.053000000000004 0.05)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.76% (-0.41 -0.41)33.23% (0.411 0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.15% (-0.456 -0.46)69.84% (0.455 0.45)
Score Analysis
    Fiorentina 45.46%
    Roma 28.46%
    Draw 26.07%
FiorentinaDrawRoma
1-0 @ 11.25% (0.15 0.15)
2-1 @ 9.08% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.24% (0.097000000000001 0.1)
3-1 @ 4.43% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-0 @ 4.02% (0.044 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.44% (-0.029 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.62% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.47% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 45.46%
1-1 @ 12.39% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 7.68% (0.106 0.11)
2-2 @ 5% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 26.07%
0-1 @ 8.47% (0.023 0.02)
1-2 @ 6.83% (-0.065 -0.06)
0-2 @ 4.66% (-0.039 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.51% (-0.053 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.84% (-0.04 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.71% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 28.46%

How you voted: Fiorentina vs Roma

Fiorentina
20.4%
Draw
22.9%
Roma
56.7%
157
Head to Head
Dec 10, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
Roma
1-1
Fiorentina
Lukaku (5')
Cristante (37'), Zalewski (41'), Paredes (80'), Llorente (90+6')
Zalewski (64'), Lukaku (87')
Martinez (66')
Ikone (64'), Biraghi (75'), Duncan (86')
Milenkovic (90+7')
May 27, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 37
Fiorentina
2-1
Roma
Jovic (85'), Ikone (88')
Saponara (25'), Martinez (42'), Venuti (50'), Jovic (64'), Julio (77')
El Shaarawy (11')
Missori (32'), Solbakken (58'), Svilar (75'), Mourinho (84')
Jan 15, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 18
Roma
2-0
Fiorentina
Dybala (40', 82')
May 9, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 36
Fiorentina
2-0
Roma
Gonzalez (5' pen.), Bonaventura (11')
Amrabat (19'), Bonaventura (28'), Duncan (49')

Mancini (24')
Aug 22, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 1
Roma
3-1
Fiorentina
Mkhitaryan (26'), Veretout (64', 79')
Pellegrini (13'), Zaniolo (44')
Zaniolo (52')
Milenkovic (60')
Bonaventura (45+3'), Pulgar (53')
Dragowski (17')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
FT
Patriots
3-24
Jets
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Torino532085311
2Udinese431074310
3Napoli43019459
4Empoli52305239
5Inter Milan42209368
6Juventus42206068
7Lazio42118627
8Atalanta BCAtalanta42028806
9Hellas VeronaHellas Verona52038806
10AC Milan41219635
11Genoa412145-15
12Parma411267-14
13Lecce411216-54
14Fiorentina403156-13
15Monza403134-13
16Roma403123-13
17Bologna403147-33
18Como402237-42
19CagliariCagliari502318-72
20VeneziaVenezia401318-71


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