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Leeds logo
Premier League | Gameweek 23
Jan 22, 2022 at 3pm UK
Elland Road
Newcastle logo

Leeds
0 - 1
Newcastle


James (57'), Dallas (67'), Llorente (74'), Rodrigo (84')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Shelvey (75')
Saint-Maximin (57'), Dummett (62')

Preview: Leeds United vs. Newcastle United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Leeds United and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

With discontent growing around the club, Newcastle United continue their battle for Premier League safety with Saturday's trip to Leeds United.

Marcelo Bielsa's side edged a thrilling contest with West Ham United 3-2 last time out, while the Magpies were forced to settle for a point against Watford.


Match preview

Leeds United manager Marcelo Bielsa on January 16, 2022© Reuters

The Jack Harrison show took centre stage during Leeds' battle with West Ham at the London Stadium last time out, as the former Manchester City man took home the match ball after propelling the Whites to a crucial win over the top-four challengers.

Twice Harrison saw his goals cancelled out by Jarrod Bowen and Pablo Fornals in the capital, but the 25-year-old's third of the day proved to be the decisive strike, with Bowen guilty of wasting a gilt-edged chance to level the scores once again late on.

Having gained an immediate measure of revenge after being dumped out of the FA Cup by the Hammers, Leeds and their 100% start to the Premier League in 2022 have risen to 15th in the standings - nine points above the relegation zone with a game in hand on 18th-placed Norwich City.

Bielsa's side endured a wholly forgettable first half of the campaign, but they could now win as many games in the first month of 2022 as they did throughout the entire second half of 2021, although their long-standing defensive issues are still coming to the fore.

Indeed, a tally of 39 goals conceded is the most outside the bottom three, and they have shipped 19 of those strikes in their last seven top-flight games, so Newcastle would choose no better time to take advantage of such woes and improve the mood at St James' Park.

Newcastle United manager Eddie Howe on January 15, 2022© Reuters

Allan Saint-Maximin may have been up to his old tricks once again, but a priceless three points against a relegation rival passed Newcastle United by against Watford, who rallied to take a point back down to Vicarage Road last weekend.

After wing king Saint-Maximin's stellar solo effort had put the Magpies in the ascendancy with 49 minutes on the clock, Eddie Howe's side were seemingly set to march to maximum points before Joao Pedro silenced the home crowd by heading home with three minutes left to play.

The boos rang out around St James' Park following the final whistle, with the home crowd also witnessing their side become the victim of an FA Cup giant killing to Cambridge United seven days before, and Howe's men remain 19th in the standings and two points adrift of safety.

The signings of Kieran Trippier and Chris Wood cannot come good soon enough for the Magpies, who have seen their hopes of landing Diego Carlos from Sevilla take a hit in recent days, and Howe is fighting an uphill battle to finally secure Newcastle's first away win of the Premier League season.

Newcastle have conceded nine goals across their three most recent Premier League defeats away from home and shared the spoils in a 1-1 stalemate with Leeds earlier this season, but last season's trip to Elland Road ended in a comprehensive 5-2 defeat for the Magpies.

Leeds United Premier League form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W

Leeds United form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W

Newcastle United Premier League form:
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D

Newcastle United form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D



Team News

Leeds United's Junior Firpo walks off the pitch injured after being substituted on January 16, 2022© Reuters

Leeds did not come through the win over West Ham unscathed, as Junior Firpo and Adam Forshaw were both early casualties with thigh problems, and while the latter played down the issue as a "small" injury, he will miss out nonetheless.

Diego Llorente will return from a ban to bolster the Whites' defence, while Tyler Roberts and Joe Gelhardt could also be involved, but Patrick Bamford, Kalvin Phillips, Liam Cooper, Jamie Shackleton and Charlie Cresswell remain sidelined.

Llorente's return to the defence could see Stuart Dallas feature on the left-hand side to cover for the injured Firpo, as Luke Ayling returns to the right flank, while Daniel James could find his place up top under threat from Rodrigo.

As for Newcastle, Javier Manquillo is back from a ban to bolster Howe's defensive options, but centre-backs Ciaran Clark (COVID-19) and Federico Fernandez (thigh) remain absent for the time being.

Callum Wilson is still facing around another six weeks out of action as Wood prepares to spearhead the attack again, and Isaac Hayden will also be sidelined until March with his knee problem.

Dwight Gayle and Jeff Hendrick are potential options for the weekend after returning to training following COVID-19 infection, but Matt Ritchie's knee problem will need assessing.

Jamal Lewis could come into contention for a start over Paul Dummett on the left-hand side, but Howe will otherwise likely stick with the same formula from the Watford draw.

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Llorente, Struijk, Dallas; Koch; Raphinha, Bate, Klich, Harrison; Rodrigo

Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Dubravka; Trippier, Lascelles, Schar, Lewis; Longstaff, Shelvey, Joelinton; Fraser, Wood, Saint-Maximin


SM words green background

We say: Leeds United 2-1 Newcastle United

In spite of their disappointing bottom-half standing, Leeds have been a tough nut to crack at Elland Road in recent weeks and need no second invitation to attack this leaky Magpies defence.

It is just one frustration after another for Newcastle at this point, who will not roll over and accept defeat on Saturday, but a first away win of the season should continue to elude the Magpies.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 61.41%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 16.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.32%), while for a Newcastle United win it was 0-1 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Leeds vs Newcastle

Leeds United
77.3%
Draw
9.7%
Newcastle United
13.1%
176
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Leeds United manager Marcelo Bielsa on October 23, 2021
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CLeicester CityLeicester463141189414897
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5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom4621121370472375
6Norwich CityNorwich4621101579641573
7Hull City461913146860870
8Middlesbrough46209177162969
9Coventry CityCoventry4617131670591164
10Preston North EndPreston46189195667-1163
11Bristol City461711185351262
12Cardiff CityCardiff46195225370-1762
13Millwall461611194555-1059
14Swansea CitySwansea461512195965-657
15Watford461317166161056
16Sunderland46168225254-256
17Stoke CityStoke461511204960-1156
18Queens Park RangersQPR461511204758-1156
19Blackburn RoversBlackburn461411216074-1453
20Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds46158234468-2453
21Plymouth ArgylePlymouth461312215970-1151
RBirmingham CityBirmingham461311225065-1550
RHuddersfield TownHuddersfield46918194877-2945
RRotherham UnitedRotherham46512293789-5227


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