Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 38.24%. A win for Lens had a probability of 36.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.44%) and 2-0 (6.05%). The likeliest Lens win was 1-2 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
Result | ||
Monaco | Draw | Lens |
38.24% ( 0.02) | 25.11% ( -0) | 36.65% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 57.35% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.82% ( 0) | 46.18% ( -0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.53% ( 0) | 68.47% ( -0) |
Monaco Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.16% ( 0.01) | 23.84% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.98% ( 0.02) | 58.02% ( -0.02) |
Lens Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.3% ( -0.01) | 24.7% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.76% ( -0.01) | 59.23% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Monaco | Draw | Lens |
2-1 @ 8.46% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.44% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.05% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.05% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.89% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.83% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.45% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.04% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( 0) Other @ 2.02% Total : 38.24% | 1-1 @ 11.8% 2-2 @ 5.92% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.89% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.1% | 1-2 @ 8.26% ( -0) 0-1 @ 8.23% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.76% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.85% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.76% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.68% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.35% 2-4 @ 0.97% 0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 1.86% Total : 36.65% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 31 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 61 |
3 | Brest | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 57 |
4 | Lille | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 55 |
5 | Nice | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
6 | Lens | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 49 |
7 | Lyon | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 47 |
8 | Rennes | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 45 |
9 | Marseille | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 44 |
10 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 40 |
11 | Toulouse | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 40 |
12 | Reims | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |