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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 15
Nov 13, 2022 at 2pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Blé
Troyes

Brest
2 - 1
Troyes

Del Castillo (55' pen.), Mounie (77' pen.)
Herelle (80'), Chardonnet (86'), Bizot (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Chardonnet (60' og.)
Kouame (34'), Lopes (36')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Troyes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Nice 1-0 Brest
Sunday, November 6 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Troyes 1-1 Auxerre
Friday, November 4 at 8pm in Ligue 1

We said: Brest 2-2 Troyes

Neither side are particularly enjoying their football at the moment, and may just hope to avoid defeat before the lengthy World Cup break in a fixture which historically has been very tight. Troyes' last seven games have seen both teams score though, and Brest have been leaky in defence too, so goals should be a near certainty. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 32.14% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.06%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-2 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Brest in this match.

Result
BrestDrawTroyes
43.85% (0.064999999999998 0.06) 24.01% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01) 32.14% (-0.058 -0.06)
Both teams to score 60.18% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.97% (0.017000000000003 0.02)42.03% (-0.020000000000003 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.57% (0.017000000000003 0.02)64.43% (-0.018999999999991 -0.02)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.6% (0.033999999999992 0.03)19.39% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.79% (0.056999999999995 0.06)51.2% (-0.059000000000005 -0.06)
Troyes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.66% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)25.34% (0.025000000000002 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.87% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)60.12% (0.031999999999996 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Brest 43.85%
    Troyes 32.14%
    Draw 24%
BrestDrawTroyes
2-1 @ 9.08% (0.0059999999999985 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.06% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 6.61% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.96% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.61% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.41% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 2.04% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.48% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 1.4% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 43.85%
1-1 @ 11.06% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.23%
0-0 @ 4.91% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
3-3 @ 1.56%
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 24%
1-2 @ 7.6% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-1 @ 6.75% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.63% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.48% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.85% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 2.12% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.19% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
2-4 @ 0.98% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 32.14%

How you voted: Brest vs Troyes

Brest
43.6%
Draw
35.9%
Troyes
20.5%
39
Head to Head
Feb 13, 2022 2pm
Brest
5-1
Troyes
Satriano (7', 27'), Honorat (49', 67'), Mounie (82')
Agoume (15'), Der Zakarian (66')
Rami (45')
Tardieu (43')
Dec 22, 2021 8pm
Troyes
1-1
Brest
Rami (80')
Kabore (13'), Moulin (13')
Honorat (5')
Herelle (22'), Mounie (54')
Jan 12, 2019 2pm
Brest
1-1
Troyes
Autret (38')
Larsonneur (56'), Belaud (71'), Autret (72'), N'Goma (90')
Weber (90')
Mbeumo (51')
Marcel (74'), Obiang (75')
Obiang (90')
Aug 3, 2018 7pm
Troyes
1-2
Brest
Touzghar (13')
Kashi (41'), Obiang (45')
Charbonnier (37', 42')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CParis Saint-GermainPSG312010176294770
2MonacoMonaco32187762422061
3Brest32169749331657
4Lille321510748311755
5Nice31149836251151
6Lens32147114234849
7Lyon32145134654-847
8Rennes32129115143845
9Marseille31111194738944
10Montpellier HSCMontpellier321011114144-340
11Toulouse321010123942-340
12Reims31117133845-740
13StrasbourgStrasbourg3299143547-1236
14NantesNantes3296172949-2033
15Le HavreLe Havre32711143342-932
16Metz3285193454-2029
17Lorient3268183763-2626
18Clermont32510172654-2825


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