Macarthur welcome the Western Sydney Wanderers to the Campbelltown Stadium on Saturday morning as the two teams aim to maintain their positions inside the playoff places.
The hosts suffered their second defeat of the season last time out, losing 3-0 to the reigning champions Sydney FC, while Carl Robinson's men were held to a 1-1 draw by Newcastle Jets.
Match preview
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This is Macarthur's first season in the Australian A-League, and they have got off to a good start, picking up seven points from their opening five fixtures.
Head coach Ante Milicic recruited well over the summer, attracting several big names to the club. The Australian enticed former Blackburn Rovers and Nottingham Forest forward Matt Derbyshire, alongside ex-Athletic Bilbao midfielder Markel Susaeta.
Derbyshire and Susaeta have started quite well in their new surroundings contributing a goal apiece, but bigger things will be expected of them in the weeks to come.
Reaching the playoffs in their maiden top-flight campaign would be an incredible achievement for the Bulls, and a win over the weekend would give them renewed belief that they can do exactly that.
The Wanderers started 2020-21 with a defeat on home soil to their upcoming opponents, but Robinson's men have responded to that shock result in impressive fashion.
They have gone four games unbeaten, picking up eight points from a possible 12 to move up to third in the A-League standings.
Despite their lofty current status in the top-flight table, the Bankwest Stadium outfit have struggled to put the ball in the back of the net so far this season.
In their five games, they have scored just five goals, and Robinson will know his team will need to find their scoring touch sooner rather than later if they are to continue their rise up the rankings.
Macarthur Australian A-League form: WLDWL
Western Sydney Wanderers Australian A-League form: LWDWD
Team News
Macarthur will have to cope without the services of their club-captain Mark Milligan after the 35-year-old was sent off last time out against Sydney FC.
That means Australia international Aleksandar Susnjar could make his fifth appearance of the season and line up next to Aleksandar Jovanovic in the heart of defence.
Goalkeeper Vedran Janjetovic is a long-term absentee for Western Sydney Wanderers and will once again be unavailable at the weekend.
The 33-year-old is the only injury concern for Robinson, though, and is likely to stick largely with the same XI that has performed so well in recent weeks.
Macarthur possible starting lineup:
Federici; Meredith, Susnjar, Jovanovic, Franjic; Etxebarria, Genreau; Najjar, Puyo, Susaeta; Derbyshire
Western Sydney Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Margush; McGowan, Mourdoukoutas, Gordon; Georgievski, Dorrans, Baccus, Russell; Troisi, Ibini-Isei, Cox
We say: Macarthur 1-1 Western Sydney Wanderers
Macarthur came away with all three points on the opening day of the season in the reverse fixture, but Western Sydney Wanderers are a much-improved outfit since then. While Robinson's side struggle to score goals, they also rarely concede, and we can see this ending as a low-scoring draw.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western Sydney Wanderers win with a probability of 56.91%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 22.06% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western Sydney Wanderers win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.96%) and 0-1 (7.69%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (5.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
