Bottom-of-the-table Newcastle Jets play host to Melbourne City on Sunday looking to build on their recent two-match unbeaten streak in the A-League.
While Melbourne City sit two points above their next opponents, they have recently dropped down to eighth position after two defeats in succession.
Match preview
Having suffered four successive defeats during the early weeks of the season, Craig Deans was left feeling that he would soon be removed from his position as interim boss of Newcastle Jets.
However, four points from games at Wellington Phoenix and Western Sydney Wanderers have provided Deans with a stay of execution ahead of a permanent appointment being made next week.
Whether Deans will remain at the helm in the long term remains very much in doubt, but the long-serving club member is aware that defeat will likely spell the end for his time in charge.
Should the Jets prevail on Sunday, they could move into the mid-table positions, putting a different spin on what has felt like a chaotic start to the campaign.
While Valentino Yuel's three-match scoring streak came to an end against Western Sydney Wanderers, Roy O'Donovan was able to chip in with his second strike of the season.
At a time when the Jets have brought themselves back into contention, Melbourne City are now at risk of dropping towards the bottom of the table.
Patrick Kisnorbo witnessed his team concede three goals in each of the defeats to Perth Glory and Central Coast Mariners, extending their run of games without a clean sheet to four.
Although City appears to have few issues in the final third, Kisnorbo is aware that he must find a solution to their concerning form at the back to challenge for the league crown.
Despite successive setbacks away from home, Kisnorbo will be encouraged that the Jets have lost their three fixtures at the McDonald Jones Stadium this season.
Newcastle Jets Australian A-League form: LLLLWD
Melbourne City Australian A-League form: WLWLL
Team News
The Jets have made two signings this week, bringing in midfielder Syahrian Abimanyu and playmaker Liridon Krasniqi.
However, Deans may name the same XI which secured a share of the spoils versus Western Sydney Wanderers.
City boss Kisnorbo will be forced into at least one alteration after Kerrin Stokes was sent off against the Mariners.
Ben Garuccio is expected to be brought into the team as his replacement.
Newcastle Jets possible starting lineup:
Duncan; O'Toole, Topor-Stanley, Jackson, Hoffman; Ugarkovic, Petratos, Thurgate; Najjarine, O'Donovan, Yuel
Melbourne City possible starting lineup:
Glover; Jamieson, Good, Griffiths, Garuccio; Tilio, Gomulka, Berenguer; Noone, MacLaren, Metcalfe
We say: Newcastle Jets 1-1 Melbourne City
Taking form and league positions into consideration, both sides will be placing priority on avoiding defeat on Sunday. With that in mind, we think that a low-scoring draw could be played out, a result which would keep each team ticking over in the right direction.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 44.18%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
