The USA can maintain their first-place position in the final round of World Cup 2022 qualifying on Sunday with a victory over Panama at Estadio Rommel Fernandez.
Los Canaleros suffered their first defeat in the Octagon, falling 1-0 to El Salvador in their previous match, while the Americans have won back-to-back fixtures, getting past Jamaica 2-0 on Thursday.
Match preview
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It is a long road to qualify for any World Cup, and Panama have learned the hard way how quickly things can change in the span of one game.
Thomas Christiansen had to be feeling good about his team's form going into San Salvador with five points from three matches, including a draw to Mexico.
On Thursday, however, they were humbled by La Selecta, who scored their first goal in this round of competition, and Panama could not recover, failing to get a single shot on target.
That defeat moved them outside a top-three position in the group and into fourth place, but just a point behind Canada, with a pair of critical matches upcoming.
The standings are so tight at the moment that every time you drop points there could be a heavy cost, and Panama had a chance to pick up three points versus Mexico last month, leading 1-0 with less than 15 minutes remaining, eventually playing to a 1-1 draw.
In the past they have struggled to stay with this US team, dropping a 6-2 decision in a friendly played in 2020 and losing three of their last four games against the Yanks by three or more goals.
They have not beaten the Americans since a penalty shootout victory at the 2015 CONCACAF Gold Cup, while having failed to win a 90-minute encounter against them since a 2-1 triumph at that same tournament four years prior.
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The US appear to be hitting their stride following an anxious two and a half matches to kick off this qualifying campaign.
Gregg Berhalter went with another youthful lineup on Thursday against the Reggae Boyz, and they showed a lot of flair in what was a dominating performance.
When you dawn the red, white and blue of the United States, the expectations are always sky-high, especially within their region, and this team are playing up to those expectations at the moment.
Even though they have not always looked spectacular in every game, their fighting spirit has been evident throughout the year as they have usually found ways to avoid defeat, even in matches where they have played poorly, having now gone unbeaten in 13 consecutive encounters.
Against Jamaica, the Yanks did a great job of exploiting the amount of space given to them, with 62% of the possession and firing seven shots on target.
Playing inside a smaller, more intense venue as will be the case in Panama City this weekend could be a little more intimidating for this young team, but they have handled themselves quite well away from home, losing only one match this year outside of the US.
One of the many lessons the Americans would have learned after missing out on the 2018 finals was the importance of seizing an opportunity when it arrives, and in the next week, there is a chance for them to potentially pad their lead atop the standings and give themselves some breathing room.
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Team News
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Christiansen made only two changes to the starting 11 versus El Salvador with Harold Cummings replacing Andres Andrade in central defence and Abdiel Ayarza started instead of Adalberto Carrasquilla, although the formation changed slightly as Yoel Barcenas played as a striker alongside Rolando Blackburn instead of his usual position just in behind him.
Gabriel Torres came on as a substitute on Thursday, and he needs just three more appearances to reach 100, while Freddy Gondola earned his first cap for the team, replacing midfielder Jose Luis Rodriguez for the final 25 minutes.
In their last victory versus the Yanks, goalkeeper Luis Mejia played a big part, stopping the last two American penalty kicks, while Roman Torres, Abdiel Arroyo and Cummings scored on their attempts.
Ricardo Pepi continues to spark his side as the 18-year-old American notched a brace against the Jamaicans, becoming the second-youngest player to score multiple goals in a match for this team behind Christian Pulisic, who sat out of that match with an injury.
Brenden Aaronson is off to an excellent start to his international career, picking up his fourth assist with the national team this week to go along with his five goals scored in only 11 appearances.
Defender Miles Robinson and goalkeeper Matt Turner are the only players who have featured in every minute of each American qualifier this year, while Shaquell Moore, Walker Zimmerman, Yunus Musah, Luca de la Torre and Tim Weah all made their World Cup qualifying debuts.
Panama possible starting lineup:
Mejia; Davis, Ramos, Escobar, Murillo; Cooper, Godoy, Yanis, Martinez, Barcenas; Blackburn
USA possible starting lineup:
Turner; Moore, Zimmerman, M. Robinson, McKenzie; Roldan, Lletget, Acosta; Arriola, Pepi, Hoppe
We say: Panama 0-1 USA
The environment should give the Panamanians a slight advantage, but the conditions should not have a major impact on this young American team who are brimming with confidence and with a teenage sensation, who at the moment can do no wrong.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 43.13%. A win for Panama had a probability of 30.09% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Panama win was 1-0 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
