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Preston North End logo
Championship | Gameweek 27
Jan 15, 2022 at 3pm UK
Deepdale
Birmingham logo

Preston
1 - 1
Birmingham

Bauer (31')
Whiteman (72')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Hogan (86')
Mengi (56')

Preview: Preston North End vs. Birmingham City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Preston North End and Birmingham City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Preston North End will welcome fellow mid-table outfit Birmingham City to Deepdale for their Championship encounter on Saturday afternoon.

Both sides head into this fixture on the back of defeats in the third round of the FA Cup, with the Lilywhites losing to Cardiff City, while the Blues suffered defeat at the hands of League One outfit Plymouth Argyle.


Match preview

Bury manager Ryan Lowe pictured in December 2018© Reuters

For the fourth successive season, Preston have been knocked out in the third round of the FA Cup after losing 2-1 in extra time to Cardiff last weekend.

Daniel Johnson's 54th-minute penalty cancelled out Isaak Davies's first-half opener, however it was the Bluebirds who had the last laugh as Mark Harris scored a 116th-minute winner to send the Welsh outfit through to the fourth round.

Ryan Lowe would have welcomed a cup run for the Lilywhites, but now he and his players can focus fully on 25 Championship matches, with the hope of climbing towards playoff contention.

Preston have won their first two league games since Lowe took charge last month, beating both Barnsley and Stoke by 2-1 scorelines. The last Lilywhites manager to win his first three league matches in charge was Gary Peters back in December 1994.

The Lancashire-based outfit will be confident of a third successive Championship win on Saturday, as they face a Birmingham side who they have lost only twice against in their last 16 league encounters.

Birmingham City manager Lee Bowyer on August 28, 2021© Reuters

Birmingham extended their winless run across all competitions to five matches when they suffered a disappointing 1-0 defeat at home to League One side Plymouth Argyle last weekend.

George Friend's two bookable offences in the space of 10 second-half minutes reduced Blues to 10 men before they were forced into extra time. Ryan Law's 104th-minute strike proved to be the winning goal for the visitors and condemned Lee Bowyer's men to their sixth defeat in their last nine matches.

Bowyer will have been disappointed that his side were unable to boast a single shot on target against lower-league opposition. Nevertheless, Birmingham can now prioritise maintaining their Championship status for another year.

Since Blues cruised to a 5-0 victory away at Luton Town in August, their form on the road has dipped considerably, winning only one of their next 10 matches and scoring just four goals in the process.

Birmingham did, however, secure a 2-1 victory at Deepdale last season, so they can head into Saturday's game with some confidence of claiming another positive result.

Preston North End Championship form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W

Preston North End form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L

Birmingham City Championship form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L

Birmingham City form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L


Team News

Birmingham City's George Friend is shown a red card by referee Rebecca Welsh on January 8, 2022© Reuters

Preston will be without Tom Barkhuizen, Matthew Olosunde, Isaiah Brown and Josh Murphy all due to injury, while Connor Wickham has seen his short-term contract with the club expire.

Jordan Storey may return to the heart of the defence, which would likely see Brad Potts drop out of the starting lineup and Sepp van den Berg moved up the pitch to play at right wing-back.

Midfielders Ben Whiteman and Alan Browne, who both began on the bench against Cardiff, could be recalled to the first XI ahead of Ryan Ledson and Ali McCann, while Sean Maguire is expected to retain his place in attack alongside top goalscorer Emil Riis Jakobsen, who has netted eight times this term.

As for Birmingham, Marc Roberts, Lukasz Jutkiewicz, Harlee Dean and Jordan Graham are all doubtful with injuries, while George Friend will serve a one-match suspension following his dismissal against Plymouth last weekend.

With the Blues short of options at centre-back, Kristian Pedersen may have to fill in alongside Manchester United loanee Teden Mengi, who made his first appearance for the club last weekend since joining the club this month.

Neil Etheridge will continue between the sticks as Matija Sarkic is to undergo surgery on a dislocated shoulder, which could rule him out for the rest of the season.

Bowyer has revealed that Troy Deeney is ruled out for around four weeks with a thigh injury, so the likes of Chuks Aneke and 17-year-old George Hall will be hoping that they are given a chance in the starting lineup up front.

Preston North End possible starting lineup:
Iversen; Storey, Bauer, Hughes; Van den Berg, Browne, Whiteman, Earl; Johnson; Maguire, Jakobsen

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, Mengi, Pedersen, Familia-Castillo; Gardner, Sunjic, James; Campbell; Aneke, Hogan


SM words green background

We say: Preston North End 1-0 Birmingham City

Both sides played out a goalless draw at St Andrews earlier this season, and another low-scoring affair could be on the cards this weekend.

With Birmingham struggling to pose a threat in the final third, Preston should do enough to secure a slender victory on home soil.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Preston North End win with a probability of 47.57%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 24.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Preston North End win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.81%) and 2-1 (8.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.79%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (9.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Preston vs Birmingham

Preston North End
90.5%
Draw
4.8%
Birmingham City
4.8%
21
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