Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 32.22% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.47%) and 2-1 (7.37%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 0-1 (12.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Famalicao |
37.72% ( 1.07) | 30.06% ( -0.37) | 32.22% ( -0.7) |
Both teams to score 41.72% ( 0.82) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
34.51% ( 1.03) | 65.49% ( -1.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
15.77% ( 0.71) | 84.23% ( -0.7) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.5% ( 1.24) | 33.5% ( -1.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.87% ( 1.34) | 70.13% ( -1.33) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.73% ( 0.06) | 37.27% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.94% ( 0.06) | 74.06% ( -0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Famalicao |
1-0 @ 13.65% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 7.47% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 7.37% ( 0.23) 3-0 @ 2.72% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 2.69% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.49% Total : 37.71% | 1-1 @ 13.47% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 12.48% ( -0.48) 2-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.47% Total : 30.05% | 0-1 @ 12.32% ( -0.45) 1-2 @ 6.65% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.22) 1-3 @ 2.19% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.78% Total : 32.22% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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