Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 44.73%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 28.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Moreirense in this match.
Result | ||
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Moreirense |
28.67% ( -0.02) | 26.6% ( 0.01) | 44.73% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 49.88% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.37% ( -0.04) | 54.63% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.03% ( -0.03) | 75.97% ( 0.03) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.91% ( -0.03) | 34.09% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.22% ( -0.04) | 70.78% ( 0.04) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.68% ( -0.01) | 24.32% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.3% ( -0.01) | 58.7% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Moreirense |
1-0 @ 8.92% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.79% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 4.8% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.44% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.72% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0) Other @ 2.29% Total : 28.68% | 1-1 @ 12.61% 0-0 @ 8.29% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.8% ( -0) Other @ 0.89% Total : 26.59% | 0-1 @ 11.72% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.92% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.29% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 4.2% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.91% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.26% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.49% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.38% ( 0) Other @ 2.56% Total : 44.73% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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