Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 41.7%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 31.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Chaves |
41.7% ( 0.39) | 26.64% ( -0.4) | 31.65% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 51.16% ( 1.22) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.34% ( 1.55) | 53.66% ( -1.55) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.85% ( 1.29) | 75.15% ( -1.3) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.59% ( 0.91) | 25.4% ( -0.92) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.78% ( 1.24) | 60.21% ( -1.24) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.59% ( 0.8) | 31.41% ( -0.8) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.21% ( 0.91) | 67.78% ( -0.92) |
Score Analysis |
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Chaves |
1-0 @ 10.93% ( -0.38) 2-1 @ 8.68% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 7.49% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 3.96% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.14) 4-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.39% Total : 41.7% | 1-1 @ 12.66% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 7.98% ( -0.5) 2-2 @ 5.02% ( 0.18) Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.64% | 0-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.36) 1-2 @ 7.33% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.11) Other @ 2.9% Total : 31.65% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 96 | 29 | 67 | 90 |
2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 80 |
3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 72 |
4 | Braga | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 63 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 55 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 50 | 4 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 38 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 37 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 36 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 33 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 33 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 32 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 72 | -33 | 32 |
R | Vizela | 34 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 36 | 66 | -30 | 26 |
R | ChavesChaves | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 23 |
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