Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 36.4%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.49%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 1-0 (12.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.