Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea will battle it out in the semi-finals of Oceania qualifying for the World Cup 2022 when they come face-to-face in Doha.
Whoever progresses from Sunday's contest will face either New Zealand or Tahiti in the final for the opportunity to be Oceania's representative at the inter-confederation playoffs.
Match preview
Solomon Islands came through a fairly chaotic group to seal their place in the final four, with both Vanuatu and the Cook Islands forced to withdraw due to COVID-19 outbreaks in their respective squads.
Although they never faced Vanuatu in the group phase, the Solomon Islands did pick up a 2-0 victory against the Cook Islands in their opening qualifier, with Atken Kaua and Alwin Hou netting in that victory.
That result was ultimately voided due to the withdrawal of the Cook Islands, but the Bonitos still collected another victory in the group stage.
On Thursday, Felipe Vega-Arango's side got the better of fellow semi-finalists Tahiti, with Raphael Le'ai starring as he grabbed all three goals in the 3-1 victory over the Solomon Islands.
A third consecutive qualifying victory on Sunday would see the Solomon Islands move within two matches of a place at the World Cup finals.
The visitors, meanwhile, played all three of their scheduled group stage fixtures as they accumulated six points to book their semi-finals spot.
After losing 1-0 to New Zealand, Papua New Guinea bounced back in their following fixture, coming out on the right side of a 1-0 scoreline against New Caledonia.
That 1-0 victory came courtesy of an eighth-minute strike from Tommy Semmy, and they followed that result with a dramatic 2-1 win over Fiji.
Tevita Waranaivalu opened the scoring for Fiji, but the 26-year-old went from hero to villain when he was given his marching orders in the 42nd minute.
Papua New Guinea quickly made use of their numerical advantage to equalise through Ati Kepo in first-half stoppage time, while Semmy struck in the second half to set up Sunday's contest against the Solomon Islands.
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Team News
After scoring a hat-trick in the 3-1 win over Tahiti, Le'ai will be looking to continue his impressive form in a huge game for his country.
Leon Kofana, meanwhile, featured in the win over the Cook Islands before dropping down to the bench for Thursday's contest, however, he could return to the starting lineup for the semi-final encounter against Papua New Guinea.
As for Marcos Gusmao's side, they may make a change in midfield, with Raymond Gunemba expected to replace Stahl Gubag, who was withdrawn in the first half against Fiji.
Kepo made an impact after returning to the starting lineup for the final group game and the forward will look to score in back-to-back games when he lines up in the front two alongside Semmy, who has also impressed after scoring twice in qualifying.
Solomon Islands possible starting lineup:
Mango; Gagame, Kalu, Kofana, Tahunipue; Kaua, Lea'alafa, Hou, Le'ai, Komasi; Nawo
Papua New Guinea possible starting lineup:
Warisan; Joe, A. Komolong, F. Komolong, Airem; Foster, Simon, Gunemba, Sabua; Kepo, Semmy
We say: Solomon Islands 2-1 Papua New Guinea
With the stakes so high, we expect Sunday's contest to be a cagey affair and with the last two competitive meetings going the way of the Solomon Islands, we think that they will edge out Papua New Guinea on Sunday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Solomon Islands win with a probability of 43.42%. A win for Papua New Guinea had a probability of 33.13% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Solomon Islands win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.25%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Papua New Guinea win was 1-2 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Solomon Islands would win this match.
