With automatic promotion to League One still a possibility, Swindon Town's final game of the 2021-22 League Two season sees them travel to Walsall on Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile, the hosts are sitting comfortably in 15th and will only be playing for personal pride on matchday 46.
Match preview
© Reuters
A fourth consecutive season in the fourth tier beckons for Walsall, who will definitely improve on last season's 19th-placed finish in League Two, but it has been something of a tough ask to get there.
Michael Flynn's side fought back from a goal down to go 2-1 up in their battle with Colchester United on the penultimate matchday, but Freddie Sears's second of the game ultimately forced a share of the spoils at the JobServe Community Stadium.
Losing just one of their last four encounters in the division leaves Walsall sitting pretty in 15th spot and with the chance to rise above Bradford City into 14th on the final day, but they could also drop as low as 18th if results do not go their way this weekend.
Walsall may have failed time and time again on the road in recent memory, but Flynn's side welcome Swindon Town to Banks's Stadium having won six of their last seven home games in League Two, so the visitors cannot afford to make the journey feeling overly confident about confirming their playoff status.
© Reuters
Swindon's playoff destiny remains in their own hands ahead of the final day, but incredibly, Ben Garner's side could end the day having secured a top-three spot and automatic promotion or consigned to another season of fourth-tier football after dropping out of the top six.
A trio of consecutive wins over Hartlepool United, Forest Green Rovers and Barrow has done wonders for Swindon's promotion push in recent weeks, with Louis Reed scoring the winning goal against the latter barely two minutes after Matty Platt's equaliser.
As things stand, Swindon are clinging onto sixth spot in the table and could clinch third with a remarkable set of circumstances, but they would need Northampton Town and Bristol Rovers to lose for that to happen, as well as hoping Mansfield Town and Port Vale fail to beat already-promoted Forest Green and Exeter City respectively.
Looking down the table, Sutton United and Tranmere Rovers could both still pip Swindon to a spot in the playoffs, so Garner's side cannot afford a single lapse in concentration this weekend if they are to have a chance of an immediate return to League One.
The visitors' tally of 40 points on the road is the best in League Two this season, though, and they put five unanswered goals past Walsall in February's encounter, so the form book certainly tips the balance in their favour ahead of a pivotal 90 minutes.
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
Team News
Walsall's point against Colchester came in the absence of captain Joss Labadie, who could now be on the sidelines until 2023 after suffering a severe knee injury against Port Vale last month.
Flynn is also without Conor Wilkinson with a similarly serious knee problem, and ex-Republic of Ireland left-back Stephen Ward retired from the game a couple of weeks ago.
With Swindon surely up for the fight this weekend, Flynn will still be expected to put a strong team out for the final day, with Liam Kinsella potentially preferred to Sam Perry.
As for the visitors, Garner will have Ellis Iandolo back in the fold following a one-match ban, and he may take up his left-back spot, demoting Akin Odimayo to the bench in the process.
Iandolo is more than capable of doing a job in the midfield, but Garner will be loath to disrupt the harmony too much, while Jojo Wollacott was back on the bench against Barrow.
Rob Hunt and Joe Tomlinson will watch this one from the medical room, and Garner could keep his faith in Lewis Ward as the last line of defence in spite of Wollacott's return.
Walsall possible starting lineup:
Rushworth; White, Daniels, Menayese, Monthe, Shade; Kinsella, Osadebe; Earing; Miller, Kiernan
Swindon Town possible starting lineup:
Ward; Egbo, Baudry, Conroy, Iandolo; Williams, Reed, Payne; McKirdy, Davison, Barry
We say: Walsall 1-3 Swindon Town
Walsall are capable of making this a tricky run to the finish line for Swindon, but they were taught a footballing lesson by Garner's side a few months ago and have much less on the line than their visitors.
In contrast, Swindon have hit a rich vein of form at the right time, and with no side in the league picking up more points on the road, we expect the Robins to book their spot in the playoffs courtesy of a convincing triumph.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 41.49%. A win for Walsall had a probability of 31.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest Walsall win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
No Data Analysis info
