Wellington Phoenix will head into Sunday's fixture against Western United having lost their last two fixtures in the A-League.
While the home side sit in 10th position in the table, United are in seventh spot having won three of their most recent four matches.
Match preview
After their fifth-placed finish during the last campaign, things did not go to plan for Mark Rudan and Western United during the early stages of the campaign.
However, United have been able to respond with nine points from a possible 12, one of their victories coming against second-placed Melbourne City.
United relied on a first-minute Lachlan Wales goal to get the better of struggling Newcastle Jets in their last game, the fixture proving far more difficult than Rudan would have hoped.
Nevertheless, United now sit 10 points adrift of leaders Central Coast Mariners with three matches in hand, a scenario which keeps the club in the hunt for the league crown.
As far as Wellington Phoenix are concerned, setbacks against Macarthur and Melbourne City have left the club closer to the bottom two in the table.
Given the level of opposition, Ufuk Talay will put the results in perspective rather than being overly concerned about losing touch with top six.
However, Phoenix look far from the team which claimed third spot during the last campaign, and Talay is aware that he can ill-afford many more disappointments in the short term.
These two clubs are meeting for the first time in over 13 months with Phoenix prevailing 2-0 in the corresponding fixture back in February 2020.
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Team News
Ben Waine and Cameron Devlin could both return for Phoenix after being introduced as half-time substitutes in the last game.
Tomer Hemed has now netted four goals in his last five appearances, ensuring that the former Brighton & Hove Albion man will keep his place in attack.
Barring any late fitness issues, Rudan could opt to select the team which prevailed against the Jets.
Brendan Hamill and Alessandro Diamanti are most likely to be drafted into the team in defence and the final third respectively.
Wellington Phoenix possible starting lineup:
Sail; Fenton, Payne, Laws, McGarry; Davila, Devlin, Lewis, Ball; Waine, Hemed
Western United possible starting lineup:
Scott; Imai, Durante, Uskok; Pierias, Duzel, Lustica, Pain; Wales, Berisha, Guarrotxena
We say: Wellington Phoenix 1-1 Western United
Given their games in hand, Western United can afford to throw caution to the wind as they bid to become a factor at the top of the standings. However, we are backing Wellington to get back on track with a hard-earned share of the spoils at the weekend.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 40.45%. A win for Western United had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.87%) and 2-0 (6.1%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
