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Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 17
Jan 3, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
0 - 1
New Saints


Hughes (43'), Bell (43'), Edwards (45+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)
McManus (72')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and The New Saints.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Bala Town 3-0 Caernarfon
Friday, December 30 at 7.45pm in Welsh Premier League

The New Saints

All competitions
Last Game: Airbus UK 0-8 New Saints
Saturday, December 31 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 86.81%. A draw had a probability of 9.1% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 4.09%.

The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 0-3 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.16%) and 0-4 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.28%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-0 (1.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawThe New Saints
4.09% (-0.061 -0.06) 9.1% (0.1091 0.11) 86.81% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Both teams to score 44.24% (-1.32 -1.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
73.73% (-1.134 -1.13)26.27% (1.135 1.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
53.44% (-1.465 -1.47)46.56% (1.464 1.46)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
46.08% (-1.28 -1.28)53.92% (1.279 1.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.78% (-0.807 -0.81)87.22% (0.807 0.81)
The New Saints Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
96.01% (-0.191 -0.19)3.99% (0.191 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
83.15% (-0.61799999999999 -0.62)16.85% (0.619 0.62)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 4.09%
    The New Saints 86.8%
    Draw 9.1%
Caernarfon TownDrawThe New Saints
1-0 @ 1.33% (0.045 0.04)
2-1 @ 1.32% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 1.44%
Total : 4.09%
1-1 @ 4.28% (0.083 0.08)
0-0 @ 2.15% (0.151 0.15)
2-2 @ 2.13% (-0.073 -0.07)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 9.1%
0-3 @ 11.98% (0.33 0.33)
0-2 @ 11.16% (0.47 0.47)
0-4 @ 9.65% (0.122 0.12)
1-3 @ 7.4% (-0.078 -0.08)
0-1 @ 6.93% (0.389 0.39)
1-2 @ 6.9% (0.031 0.03)
0-5 @ 6.22% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-4 @ 5.96% (-0.154 -0.15)
1-5 @ 3.84% (-0.158 -0.16)
0-6 @ 3.34% (-0.058 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.29% (-0.114 -0.11)
1-6 @ 2.06% (-0.117 -0.12)
2-4 @ 1.84% (-0.12 -0.12)
0-7 @ 1.54% (-0.05 -0.05)
2-5 @ 1.19% (-0.097 -0.1)
1-7 @ 0.95% (-0.069 -0.07)
Other @ 3.55%
Total : 86.8%

Head to Head
Oct 25, 2022 7.45pm
New Saints
3-0
Caernarfon
Brobbel (16'), Wilson (42'), Dafydd (90+3')

Edwards (29')
Apr 23, 2022 12.45pm
New Saints
3-1
Caernarfon
McManus (2', 88'), Brobbel (42')
Dafydd (90+4')
Jan 28, 2022 7.45pm
Caernarfon
0-4
New Saints

Beaumont (26')
McManus (28'), Brobbel (56'), Cieslewicz (80'), Williams (86')
Marriott (61')
Aug 21, 2021 2.30pm
New Saints
5-3
Caernarfon
Davies (6'), McManus (24'), Bradford (30'), Hudson (75'), Baker (90+4')
Redmond (64'), McManus (67'), Routledge (88')
Gosset (19'), Thomas (68'), G (86')
Donohue (24'), Thomas (60'), Cartwright (63')
Apr 27, 2021 7.45pm
New Saints
0-0
Caernarfon

Mullan (41'), Routledge (45+3'), Robles (66'), Redmond (89')

Thomas (43'), Kenny (78'), Mendes (82'), Brass (90+1'), (90+1')
Gruffydd (77'), Kenny (90+2')
rhs 2.0
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