The final matchday of the Bundesliga on Saturday contains an intriguing battle between Arminia Bielefeld and RB Leipzig at the Schuco-Arena.
The hosts require a win to stand a chance of avoiding relegation out of the top flight, whilst the visitors need at least a point to guarantee a top-four place.
Match preview
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Unless Bielefeld can pull off a miraculous result to beat European hopefuls Leipzig on Saturday, their two-year stay in the top flight looks to be coming to an end.
Having picked up just two points from the last 30 available, Die Arminen find themselves in 17th place heading into the final day, three points behind Stuttgart in the relegation playoff spot.
Therefore, Bielefeld require Die Roten to lose at home to European-chasing FC Koln at the weekend, and with an inferior goal difference to their fellow strugglers, all three points, and an eight-goal swing in total, is also required in order to secure their survival for the time being.
All that would set up would be a two-legged relegation playoff against a promotion-chasing side from the 2.Bundesliga, but anything will do now for Marco Kostmann's side.
However, having not tasted victory since the 1-0 win over Union Berlin back in February, the chances of that happening look to be incredibly slim.
Finding the back of the net has ultimately cost Bielefeld this campaign, with only 26 goals being scored in the 33 league fixtures up to this point - the division's worst tally.
In fact, only four goals have been scored across their 10-game winless streak, and taking last season into account too, the minnows have only managed 52 goals in their last 67 Bundesliga outings, effectively condemning the side to a return to the second tier bar an incredible escape on the final day.
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Meanwhile, visitors Leipzig bounced back from a disappointing set of results to comprehensively see off Augsburg by a 4-0 scoreline last weekend.
Die Roten Bullen had suffered back-to-back defeats in the league against Union and Borussia Monchengladbach, before exiting the Europa League semi-finals following a shock defeat to Rangers in the second leg.
Those successive losses in the league had seen Freiburg leapfrog Domenico Tedesco's side into fourth place, but after the Black Forest side were humbled by Union last weekend, Leipzig pounced to put themselves into the driving seat heading into the final day.
A quiet first half ended with Andre Silva putting Leipzig in front against Augsburg, before a dominant second half yielded three further goals, two of which arrived from the influential Christopher Nkunku.
That brace took the Frenchman's tally to 34 goals in 50 appearances across all competitions this season - as many as the entire Bielefeld team has scored itself - and it will be largely down to the 24-year-old should they get the job done and seal a top-four place on Saturday.
Freiburg's slip-up, and the success over Augsburg at the Red Bull Arena, means that Tedesco's men head to the Schuco-Arena in control of their own destiny, with a two-point advantage being held over Christian Streich's side in fifth.
A far superior goal difference means that Leipzig require just a point, regardless of the result in Freiburg's difficult trip to third-placed Bayer Leverkusen, but Tedesco will be eager for his side to make it back-to-back victories to take into the DFB-Pokal final on May 21.
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Team News
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Bielefeld's daunting task on Saturday is made even harder by the continued absences of Fabian Klos and Bryan Lasme.
The forward duo could also be joined on the sidelines by Fabian Kunze too, who continues to struggle with an illness that forced him to miss last week's defeat to VfL Bochum.
Cedric Brunner is expected to return from a head injury however, with the full-back likely to replace Nathan de Medina on the right-hand side of the home side's defence.
As for the visitors, Josko Gvardiol remains doubtful with a bruised knee that saw him miss last weekend's win over Augsburg.
The youngster is unlikely to be risked here with next weekend's cup final on the horizon too, so Marcel Halstenberg should continue in his place on the left of the back three.
Fellow defender Mohamed Simakan returns from a one-match suspension though, with Lukas Klostermann potentially making way as a result.
Amadou Haidara nears a return from a two-month injury absence, and although the midfielder could return for the cup final, he remains unavailable for the final day of the Bundesliga.
Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Brunner, Ramos, Nilsson, Laursen; Schopf, Prietl; Wimmer, Castro, Okugawa; Serra
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Simakan, Orban, Halstenberg; Mukiele, Laimer, Kampl, Angelino; Fosberg, Nkunku; Silva
We say: Arminia Bielefeld 0-2 RB Leipzig
Although Bielefeld still stand a chance of surviving mathematically, their chances are incredibly slim, and as a result, there is unlikely to be much confidence or fight in their camp on Saturday.
As a result, Leipzig will be expected to stroll to a comfortable victory, with an early lead probably targeted in order to make changes and rest players in the second 45.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 65.72%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 14.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.76%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.37%), while for an Arminia Bielefeld win it was 1-0 (4.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
