One of the top home sides in Ligue 1 have a chance to extend their domestic unbeaten run at Stade Louis II to nine games as Monaco play host to Lyon on Saturday.
Les Monegasques are eighth in the table, but only a point behind Lyon for seventh, while only two points separate them from Strasbourg, who are fourth.
Match preview
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Monaco surprised many people back in December with the sacking of manager Niko Kovac, despite the team losing only once in November and December, while also advancing into the knockout stage of the Europa League.
Now under former Club Brugge coach Philippe Clement, this group have had a mixture of solid and disappointing results, beginning 2022 with a 0-0 draw versus Nantes before a scintillating 4-0 victory over Clermont, and most recently erasing a 2-0 deficit only to concede a 91st-minute winner to Stephy Mavididi and Montpellier in a 3-2 defeat.
Clement has adopted numerous systems during his managerial career, but one philosophy that has always remained consistent with the Belgian has been to have a side that can dominate a game, while also showing commitment, envy, and playing offensive-minded.
Since arriving in the Principality he has put an emphasis on the ability to adapt to the qualities that each of his players may possess, and it seems as though in his early days with the club, he has been able to bring out a lot of quality that was missing from some of their most prominent talents.
After being shut out in their opening fixture this year, Les Rouges et Blancs have shown the kind of quality that we all expected from them at the start of this campaign, scoring 10 goals in their last three matches played in all competitions.
The club has made no secret that they want to be taking part in European tournaments consistently, and unfortunately, throughout this campaign, consistency has been an issue as they have not won consecutive Ligue 1 fixtures since November, while failing to win more than three straight games domestically all season, and as a result they find themselves on the outside when it comes to a place in Europe.
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Lately, one has been the magical number for Olympique Lyonnais, who have tallied a single goal in four consecutive French league encounters, winning their last two by a 1-0 score.
For a side who enjoy playing quick, attacking football, while moving the ball around rapidly, they have also done well defensively, collecting back-to-back clean sheets in league play for the first time this season under Dutch manager Peter Bosz.
Their splendid form in the Europa League last year, where they topped their group with five wins and a draw, appears to have helped their confidence in Ligue 1, where they are unbeaten in their last six encounters.
The club was highly active over the final few days of the transfer window, offloading several players, and at the same time, making some big signings in the hopes of bolstering a midfield that has struggled with its creativity.
Les Gones have been fast out of the gate in recent matches, scoring in the first half in each of their previous three fixtures, two of which came in the opening 20 minutes, but they have had difficulty putting teams away, and that has led to some tense final moments in their games.
It is worth noting that they do have several players out injured or on international duty, and it seems like they may need a few of them down the stretch run of this season as they hope to finish in the top four.
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Team News
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Wissam Ben Yedder, who leads Ligue 1 in goals with 13, has been on a tear of late, scoring five in his last three games in all competitions, including a brace in a 4-2 win over Lens at the Coupe de France on Sunday, while Caio Henrique is tied with Kevin Volland for the team lead in assists with five, notching one on Sunday and Sofiane Diop has two strikes to go along with two assists in his last four home fixtures in Ligue 1.
Benoit Badiashile, Myron Boadu and Djibril Sidibe are still recovering from hamstring problems, Cesc Fabregas remains out due to illness and Krepin Diatta is likely gone for the season with an ACL injury, while the club loaned striker Pietro Pellegri to Torino in Serie A, after he had briefly returned to Monaco from a spell at AC Milan.
Aleksandr Golovin, who has missed his share of action this season due to injury, came on as a substitute last weekend, replacing Diop for the final 25 minutes, while fans were relieved to know that star midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni will be with the club for the remainder of this campaign, but is reportedly being hotly pursued by several clubs in Spain and the Premier League.
Lyon will not have Damien Da Silva available after he was cautioned in their victory (1-0) over Saint-Etienne, Houssem Aouar has a thigh injury, Jason Denayer is recovering from a sore ankle, Lenny Pintor and Jeff Reine-Adelaide have ACL problems, Karl Toko Ekambi is at the Africa Cup of Nations with Cameroon and their new signing Romain Faivre is questionable with a groin strain.
Midfielder Bruno Guimaraes signed with Newcastle United for over £33 million, Florent Da Silva was loaned to Villefranche in the French third division, Reo Griffiths signed with Doncaster Rovers in England and Tanguy Ndombele is back with Lyon, on loan from Tottenham Hotspur.
They have been bailed out numerous times, thanks to the brilliance of goalkeeper Anthony Lopes, who leads the league in saves with 71, while Moussa Dembele has goals in each of their last two games, both of them coming from the penalty spot.
Monaco possible starting lineup:
Nubel; C. Henrique, Mariapan, Disasi, Vanderson; Tchouameni; Diop, Fofana, Golovin; Volland, Ben Yedder
Lyon possible starting lineup:
Lopes; Gusto, Emerson, Denayer, Lukeba; Dubois, Cherki, Caqueret; Paqueta, Ndombele; Dembele
We say: Monaco 3-1 Lyon
Monaco have come out very aggressively and have been lethal in the final third, so we expect them to continue their strong play at home with a striker in Ben Yedder who is in fine form, while on the opposite side, the absence of Ekambi seems to be affecting a team that need to find alternative sources to score.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 49.72%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 25.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Lyon win was 0-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
