Atletico Madrid will be looking to gain revenge on Bayern Munich when the two teams lock horns at the Wanda Metropolitano in the Champions League on Tuesday night.
Bayern recorded a 4-0 victory when the pair locked horns in Munich, and the reigning champions have already booked their spot in the round of 16 with two games to spare. Atletico are second in Group A, meanwhile, but still have work to do if they are to progress to the knockout stage of the competition.
Match preview
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Atletico's Champions League form this season has been patchy at best, winning just one of their four matches, but a return of five points has left them in second spot in the table. Diego Simeone's side recovered from the 4-0 defeat in Munich on October 21 by recording a 3-2 success over Red Bull Salzburg one week later.
The capital giants have played out draws with Lokomotiv Moscow in their last two European fixtures, though, and are therefore far from comfortable in the section ahead of the clash with the European champions.
Atletico could book their spot in the round of 16 on Tuesday, although they would need to beat Bayern and hope that Lokomotiv fail to overcome Salzburg in Russia. There is every chance that their hopes of qualification could go to the final matchday, which sees them face a difficult game in Austria against Salzburg.
Simeone's team might be a tricky spot in the Champions League, but they have been flying domestically this season, winning each of their last six in La Liga - including a 1-0 success at Valencia on Saturday - to sit second in the table, level on points with leaders Real Sociedad, who have played a game more.
Tuesday's clash will be the first match between these two teams in Madrid since the group stages of the 2016-17 competition, where Atletico ran out 1-0 winners.
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Bayern, as mentioned, have breezed through to the knockout round of the competition, winning each of their four group games against Atletico, Lokomotiv and Salzburg to collect 12 points from an available 12.
The European champions have actually now won each of their last 15 Champions League matches, and it would be a huge surprise if they were not serious challengers for the crown once again.
Bayern have reached at least the quarter-finals of this competition in eight of the last nine seasons, while they are unbeaten in their last 15 European away games, recording 12 wins in the process during an incredible run.
That said, the Bundesliga giants have lost 15 of their 29 away matches to Spanish clubs in European competition, including defeats on their last two visits to Atletico, which will hand the home side confidence ahead of what is shaping up to be a fascinating contest at the Wanda Metropolitano.
Hansi Flick's team will also enter Tuesday's clash off the back of a domestic win, having beaten Stuttgart 3-1 in the Bundesliga on Saturday to sit atop the table with 22 points to show from their nine matches.
Atletico Madrid Champions League form: WLLWDD
Atletico Madrid form (all competitions): WDWWDW
Bayern Munich Champions League form: WWWWWW
Bayern Munich form (all competitions): WWWDWW
Team News
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Atletico will again be without the services of Manu Sanchez, Diego Costa and Sime Vrsaljko through injury on Tuesday, while Hector Herrera remains a serious doubt due to a muscular problem.
Luis Suarez is also unlikely to be available following a recent positive coronavirus test, while the same can be said for Lucas Torreira, with both players needing to return negative tests ahead of the contest.
Angel Correa and Joao Felix are therefore expected to feature as the front two, while Yannick Carrasco could return to the XI, having been named as a substitute against Valencia at the weekend.
Simeone could decide to select a three-man defence, although Felix's expected return is likely to see the home side line up in a 4-4-2 formation with Marcos Llorente operating on the right.
As for Bayern, Joshua Kimmich and Alphonso Davies are still on the sidelines through injury, while Bouna Sarr has missed his team's last three matches and remains a doubt.
Niklas Sule and Corentin Tolisso both made their returns from injury against Stuttgart, though, and could now come into the thinking of Flick when it comes to starting roles on Tuesday.
Leroy Sane is pushing for a start, having featured off the bench against Stuttgart, while Javi Martinez could earn a spot in the middle of the park with Bayern already through to the next round.
The reigning champions will be without the services of Marc Roca on Tuesday, though, as the summer arrival is suspended courtesy of the red card that he picked up against Salzburg last week.
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Trippier, Savic, Gimenez, Lodi; Llorente, Koke, Saul, Carrasco; Felix, Correa
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Sule, Alaba, Hernandez; Goretzka, Martinez; Gnabry, Muller, Coman; Lewandowski
We say: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Bayern Munich
Bayern are currently on an incredible winning run in the Champions League, but we fancy Atletico to hold the German giants on Tuesday. The fact that Bayern are already through to the next round could take the edge off their performance, and Simeone's side certainly have enough quality to secure a point.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 40.84%. A win for Bayern Munich had a probability of 36.68% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.7%) and 2-0 (5.03%). The likeliest Bayern Munich win was 1-2 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
