Augsburg and Freiburg go into their meeting on Saturday with very different aspirations between now and the end of the Bundesliga season.
The hosts remain in the relegation playoff spot following their defeat last weekend, whilst the visitors continue to fight for the top four despite their stuttering run of form either side of the New Year.
Match preview
© Reuters
Despite putting in an admirable display last Saturday, Augsburg still fell to a 3-2 defeat at Borussia Monchengladbach.
Markus Weinzierl's side had their chances throughout the game, but their opponents perhaps edged the encounter based on the high quality of the chances that they created.
Iago briefly pulled the score back to 2-1 early in the second half, but it was not enough for Fuggerstadter to pick up a result, with Alfred Finnbogason's goal deep into second-half stoppage time proving to be no more than a consolation.
The result leaves Augsburg in 16th - the Bundesliga's relegation playoff spot as previously mentioned - but level on points with Arminia Bielefeld in safety above them.
Considering their position and their struggles this season, three defeats in their last seven matches is far from a disaster for the relegation-threatened side, but it is their inability to score many goals that has led to Saturday's hosts failing to turn plenty of draws into victories, with three recorded during that same seven-game spell.
After netting two in each of their previous two matches though, Weinzierl will be confident that his side can turn results around in the coming weeks if they can tighten up at the other end of the pitch at the same time.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, Freiburg's goals revolve around their hopes of a remarkable Champions League spot come May.
A best-ever start to a Bundesliga campaign has slowed over the past couple of months though, with Christian Streich's side winning just two of their final seven matches of 2021, before recording just one victory in five league matches during the New Year so far.
Last weekend's 1-1 draw at home to Mainz 05 was the latest of these failures to win in recent times, with the two sides playing out an entertaining encounter at the Europa-Park Stadion.
A poor first-half display saw Freiburg head into half time at 1-0 down, which certainly flattered them considering the domination and missed opportunities from their visitors.
However, Streich's words at half time had an impact, as his side put in an improved performance in the second 45, with Nils Petersen's goal within two minutes of his arrival off the bench earning them a share of the points.
Despite their stuttering form, Freiburg remain in sixth place heading into matchday 23 at the weekend, level on points with both Hoffenheim and RB Leipzig directly above them.
The inconsistency of many sides around them so far this season mean their hopes of a Champions League spot remain high, but with just three points separating themselves from Eintracht Frankfurt in 10th as things stand, Freiburg must recapture their best form soon if they are to put in a strong challenge for a top-four spot, beginning on Saturday.
- D
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- D
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Augsburg have only two confirmed absentees ahead of Saturday's Bundesliga fixture, with long-term absentee Tobias Strobl being joined on the sidelines by fellow defender Robert Gumny.
Fredrik Jensen and Arne Maier are doubts as well though, due to a muscle injury and COVID-19 respectively.
Finnbogason will be pushing for a start following his impact off the bench last weekend, as will January arrival Ricardo Pepi, who had to settle for a substitute appearance himself following a return from international duty.
As for the visitors, Streich has just the one absentee to contend with ahead of their trip to Augsburg, with Keven Schlotterbeck remaining doubtful after missing out on the squad last weekend due to COVID-19.
The manager is unlikely to tinker too much with his starting lineup despite their relative struggles of late, as he has resisted doing for much of the season so far.
Petersen is unlikely to claim a first Bundesliga start of the season despite his goal as a substitute against Mainz.
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Framberger, Gouweleeuw, Oxford, Iago; Moravek, Dorsch; Hahn, Vargas; Finnbogason, Gregoritsch
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Kubler, Lienhart, N Schlotterbeck, Gunter; Eggestein, Hofler; Schade, Jeong, Grifo; Holer
We say: Augsburg 1-1 Freiburg
A fairly common result for both of these sides this season has been a 1-1 draw, so that is what we are predicting for it to finish on Saturday.
Freiburg could well nick it, but it is unlikely to be an open and high scoring encounter between two sides relatively quiet on the goals front at both ends of the pitch.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 42.48%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 32.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.86%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 2-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Freiburg in this match.
