Augsburg and Greuther Furth go head to head on the final day of the 2021-22 Bundesliga season on Saturday with nothing left to play for at the WWK Arena.
The hosts secured their top-flight survival last weekend despite suffering a heavy defeat, whilst the visitors' relegation back to the 2.Bundesliga was confirmed several weeks ago.
Match preview
© Reuters
Markus Weinzierl's Augsburg have perhaps been fortunate that results have gone their way in the past few weeks.
Picking up 10 points from an impressive five-game spell between the end of February and beginning of April has effectively secured their survival, with just one win and four defeats being picked up since then.
The lack of points being registered by fellow strugglers Stuttgart and Arminia Bielefeld mean that Fuggerstadter have been let off the hook in a way, but nevertheless, a 12th successive Bundesliga campaign has been secured for next season.
Augsburg were downed 4-0 at top-four-chasing RB Leipzig last time out, despite putting in a solid defensive display and holding out until the 40th minute.
However, once Andre Silva broke the deadlock shortly before half time, there was no way back for Weinzierl's men and they eventually fell to a heavy defeat following a barrage of pressure in the second 45.
As a result, Augsburg head into the final day in 14th spot, five points clear of Stuttgart in the relegation playoff spot, allowing the hosts to relax and enjoy the final day in front of their own supporters.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, visitors Greuther also have nothing left to play for, with their immediate return to the second tier being confirmed weeks ago.
The end of the Bundesliga season cannot come quickly enough for Stefan Leitl's side, who have endured a miserable second-ever campaign in the top flight.
Just three wins have been registered up until the final day, and with none arriving in their 16 previous away trips this campaign, it is difficult to envisage this changing at the WWK Arena on Saturday.
The quality of the Bundesliga has been a step up in class too far for the Clover Leaves, with preparations of a rebuild for a promotion push from the 2.Bundesliga for the 2022-23 campaign already being well underway for some time.
Having drawn each of their last three games on the road however, Saturday's visitors will at least take some confidence into the final day away trip.
With each of those draws arriving against sides that have been chasing European football this campaign - Eintracht Frankfurt, Hoffenheim and Union Berlin - Greuther can hold their heads high when they look to pick up their first and only success away from home this weekend.
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Augsburg could be without left wing-back Iago once again on Saturday, with the Brazilian missing out on last weekend's trip to Leipzig due to a knee injury.
Teenager Lasse Gunther picked up a rare start in his place at the Red Bull Arena, with Mads Pedersen being pushed further forward, but with the calibre of opponent being much lower this weekend, the latter is likely to move deeper to make way for an additional attacking player in the wide areas.
Tobias Strobl and Noah Sarenren Bazee remain long-term absentees, whilst Ruben Vargas could also miss the final game due to a sprained ankle.
January arrival Ricardo Pepi will be pushing for a start, as the American teenager looks to score his first Bundesliga goal before the season comes to a close.
As for the visitors, long-term absentees Robin Kehr and Marco Meyerhofer remain unavailable, along with Havard Nielsen too, with the trio having to wait to return to action until the 2022-23 campaign in the second tier.
Max Christiansen, Paul Seguin and Jeremy Dudziak are again available having returned to the squad for the 3-1 defeat to Borussia Dortmund last weekend following injury absences.
Jetro Willems returns from a one-match suspension for the final game, and the former Newcastle United man should immediately slot back into a left wing-back role in place of the covering Jamie Leweling.
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Gouweleeuw, Oxford, Uduokhai; Caligiuri, Dorsch, Maier, Pedersen; Pepi, Gregoritsch; Niederlechner
Greuther Furth possible starting lineup:
Linde; Griesbeck, Viergever, Itter; Christiansen; Asta, Raschl, Tillman, Willems; Hrgota, Ngankam
We say: Augsburg 2-0 Greuther Furth
With neither side having anything to play for, it is difficult to gauge how both will attack this game, although the hosts will be expected to triumph regardless.
The visitors will look to end their miserable campaign on a high note, but their significant lack of quality has been clear, particularly on their travels, so we are predicting that Augsburg will edge them out to secure a final day triumph in front of their own supporters.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Augsburg win with a probability of 53.36%. A win for Greuther Furth had a probability of 23.92% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Augsburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Greuther Furth win was 1-2 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Augsburg in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Augsburg.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
