Augsburg and Wolfsburg will do battle on Sunday in a key contest at the bottom of the Bundesliga table.
The hosts currently sit 15th, only leading the relegation playoff place on goal difference, while their visitors are five points better off in 13th spot.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having struggled to find consistency, Augsburg have been battling in the fight for survival throughout the Bundesliga season, and their cause was harmed by consecutive defeats to Freiburg and fellow strugglers Borussia Monchengladbach to sit on just 22 points from 23 games.
Markus Weinzierl's side were then able to put two crucial results together, though, firstly holding Borussia Dortmund to a 1-1 draw thanks to Noah Sarenren Bazee's equaliser before scoring a crucial 1-0 victory over 17th-placed Arminia Bielefeld, with Daniel Caligiuri hitting the decisive goal.
The Fuggerstadter's last game before the international break was another pivotal one, as they travelled to fellow strugglers Stuttgart, and, despite taking the lead twice through Andre Hahn and Michael Gregoritsch, they eventually left empty-handed after a harmful 3-2 defeat.
That saw them drop behind Stuttgart, now sitting just one place above the bottom three and only leading Hertha Berlin in the relegation playoff place on goal difference as a result.
Heading into their third consecutive relegation six-pointer, Weinzierl's men will know that a victory is vital if they are to gain a much-needed cushion over the drop zone heading into their final seven games of the league season.
© Reuters
They welcome a Wolfsburg side who are somewhat of a surprise inclusion in the fight for survival after a fourth-placed finish in the German top flight last term.
Die Wolfe have failed to replicate those levels at any point of the new campaign, and, with only 21 points and six victories from their opening 20 matches, they sat in danger of dropping to the second tier.
However, under the management of Florian Kohfeldt, they have, at least, given their standing a major boost in the last two months, winning three of their last seven matches and collecting 10 points.
The most recent of those victories came at the beginning of March, as a Taiwo Awoniyi own goal made the difference at home to Union Berlin, but they then went on to suffer consecutive defeats to high-flying duo Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen heading into the international break.
While they do boast a five-point lead over their opponents and the bottom three, Die Wolfe will be wary of the impact that a defeat would have in slashing their lead, and, as a result, will be desperate for a victory to climb further up the division.
- W
- L
- L
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- D
- W
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Augsburg have several injury issues to deal with, as winger Noah Sarenren Azeez is set to miss the end of the season while Felix Uduokhai, Tobias Strobl and Alfred Finnbogason are also ruled out.
However, they did welcome Niklas Dorsch back to action last time out after a suspension, and he could come back into the midfield after featuring off the bench in that contest.
Michael Gregoritsch and Andre Hahn should continue to play important roles in the front three, while Ricardo Pepi and Brighton & Hove Albion loanee Andi Zeqiri will also be vying for starts.
Wolfsburg are without Paulo Otavio, William and Micky van de Ven due to injuries, while the availability of Ridle Baku and Jerome Roussillon is unclear as both have been dealing with illnesses.
First-choice goalkeeper Koen Casteels is also battling an injury, and, while he is nearing a return, the Belgian may miss out on Sunday with Pavao Pervan set to deputise between the sticks.
Even following the January departure of Wout Weghorst, they still boast a potent front line, and Lukas Nmecha, who has hit eight league Bundesliga goals this term, will lead the line, likely with support from Max Kruse and Jonas Wind.
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Winther, Oxford, Gouweleeuw; Caligiuri, Maier, Gruezo, Iago; Hahn, Gregoritsch, Zeqiri
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Pervan; Lacroix, Brooks, Bornauw; Steffen, Arnold, Schlager, Mbabu; Kruse, Wind; Nmecha
We say: Augsburg 1-2 Wolfsburg
In a true six-pointer, we expect a cagey affair that could go either way.
Ultimately, the visitors have a squad more than capable of moving well clear of the relegation scrap, and we back them to get over the line with a hard-fought win.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Augsburg win with a probability of 39.45%. A win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 35.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Augsburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Wolfsburg win was 0-1 (8.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Augsburg would win this match.
