The standout clash in the Bundesliga this weekend takes place on Sunday evening, with third-placed Bayer Leverkusen hosting fourth-placed RB Leipzig at the BayArena.
The outcome of this intriguing tie could well play a huge part in deciding who qualifies for next season's Champions League, with the chasing pack looking to pounce on slip-ups from either of these sides.
Match preview
© Reuters
Despite picking up seven points from the last nine on offer, Leverkusen head into this crucial game far from the exceptional form that they had showcased earlier in the campaign.
In those last three outings, Die Werkself narrowly saw off poor Wolfsburg and Hertha Berlin sides before being held to a goalless draw at VfL Bochum last weekend, with just one win and four defeats in a poor six-game run preceding this spell.
Gerardo Seoane's side were perhaps fortunate to come away with a point from the newly-promoted Bochum too, with plenty of nervy moments during an even encounter.
The season-ending injury to Florian Wirtz, and the ongoing injury problems for top goalscorer Patrik Schick, have been far from ideal, but Leverkusen have been nothing like the side that blew teams away in the opening weeks of the season and immediately after the winter break.
The hosts will have to be much improved if they are to pick up a positive result against their in-form opponents on Sunday, with a defeat meaning they would be leapfrogged in the table.
Fifth-placed Freiburg are also just four points behind at the time of writing, and with them playing a favourable fixture at home to Bochum on Saturday, Leverkusen's advantage in the race for the top four could be slashed down to just one point come the end of the weekend.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, Leipzig seem to improve further and further under Domenico Tedesco as each week passes by, with a comfortable 3-0 win over top-four hopefuls Hoffenheim last weekend coming before their 2-0 win at Atalanta on Thursday evening.
That result saw Die Roten Bullen progress to the semi-finals of the Europa League courtesy of a 3-1 triumph on aggregate, and with a DFB-Pokal semi-final tie to come against Union Berlin on Wednesday, Sunday's visitors continue to fight on three fronts in the closing stages of the campaign.
Much of the positivity this season has come under Tedesco, who replaced Jesse Marsch back in December, with the club enduring a humiliating exit at the Champions League group stage and struggling down in midtable in the Bundesliga before his arrival.
The 36-year-old boasts a remarkable record of 14 wins and just two defeats from his 21 games in charge across all competitions up to this point, with one of those losses coming in a narrow setback at Bayern Munich.
As a result of the fantastic turnaround, Leipzig head into matchday 30 in fourth place in the Bundesliga table, just one point and one place behind their hosts, so as mentioned above, victory would take them above Leverkusen and further strengthen their hold on a top-four spot, something that seemed so unlikely just a few months ago.
The in-form Christopher Nkunku, who has been heavily linked with Manchester United in recent weeks, has been at the centre of Leipzig's success in all competitions.
The Frenchman has enjoyed a more advanced role under his new boss, with the 24-year-old netting a brace against Atalanta on Thursday to take his tally to 30 goals and 15 assists across 43 games this season, so he is likely to play a huge part in any success for Leipzig at the BayArena too.
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- D
- W
- D
- W
- W
- D
- D
- W
- D
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Although Wirtz continues to be a big miss for Leverkusen, Schick's return in the last two matches has been a welcome boost, despite failing to find the back of the net since returning so far.
However, another blow for the hosts is the expected absence of Jonathan Tah, who was forced off just 30 minutes into their draw last weekend because of a rib injury.
With Odilon Kossounou filling in at right-back for the absent Jeremie Frimpong, Piero Hincapie is likely to move inside from left-back, meaning Mitchel Bakker should come into the starting 11.
Backup goalkeeper Andrey Lunev remains sidelined, along with Timothy Fosu-Mensah, Amine Adli and Karim Bellarabi, whilst Sardar Azmoun is a doubt due to a cold.
As for the visitors, the huge quality in depth has allowed Tedesco to rotate his side well during their hectic fixture congestion since the turn of the year.
The significance of the occasion could mean that the greater experience of Lukas Klostermann may be called upon in place of Mohamed Simakan in defence.
Dominik Szoboszlai was one of the players rotated in midweek despite registering a goal and assist against Hoffenheim, but he could be recalled in place of Dani Olmo to start alongside Nkunku and Andre Silva in attack.
Amadou Haidara is the only absentee for Tedesco to contend with, so the visiting boss has plenty of options at his disposal should he decide to freshen up his side once more.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Kossounou, Tapsoba, Hincapie, Bakker; Andrich, Aranguiz; Diaby, Demirbay, Paulinho; Schick
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Klostermann, Orban, Gvardiol; Mukiele, Laimer, Kampl, Angelino; Szoboszlai; Nkunku, Silva
We say: Bayer Leverkusen 1-3 RB Leipzig
This looks set to be an intriguing tie at the BayArena on Sunday, and it is one that could see two quality sides cancel each other out, or see a flurry of goals between two prolific attacking teams.
We are predicting the latter, with the visitors coming out on top after producing far more consistent displays over recent weeks and possessing the greater momentum thanks to some exceptional performances.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 41%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 37.01% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.15%) and 1-3 (5.03%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
