Benevento host Genoa in Serie A on Sunday, with the visitors looking to close the gap on their opponents and edge closer to moving outside of the relegation places.
After an unexpectedly fast start to the campaign, Benevento have failed to win any of their last four matches, although they have drawn three of them.
Match preview
© Reuters
Managed by former AC Milan and Juventus striker Filipo Inzaghi, who took his side back to Italy's top flight with seven matches to spare when winning Serie B last season, Benevento have enjoyed a decent start to life back in Serie A.
Surviving relegation is the primary aim for a club of their size, so to be sitting in 15th position in the table after 12 games is not a bad place to be in at all for Inzaghi.
Facing off against his brother Simone Inzaghi's side Lazio on Tuesday, Filipo would have been more than encouraged by gaining a point in a 1-1 draw against a side who recently progressed to the Champions League knockout stages. Pasquale Schiattarella was the hero as he cancelled out Ciro Immobile's opener, with the midfielder sent off in stoppage time.
Having drawn against two Champions League outfits in Juventus and Lazio in their last two home games, Filipo will have every confidence of putting further distance between themselves and the bottom three by beating a side within it in the shape of Genoa on Sunday.
© Reuters
Having finished 17th in the previous two seasons, 2020-21 always felt like a season which may finally catch up with Genoa in terms of being relegated.
With just one win and seven points from their opening 12 games, that is how things look to be playing out for Rolando Maran's side so far.
However, it is still early days indeed, with Wednesday's 2-2 draw against league leaders Milan certainly representing a step in the right direction. Maran's side twice led through former Milan striker Mattia Destro's brace in an entertaining second half, but were pegged back by strikes from Davide Calabria and Pierre Kalulu.
Should Malan's side manage to replicate that performance, there is every chance they can gain a desperately needed win against Benevento.
Benevento Serie A form: LWDDLD
Genoa Serie A form: LLLDLD
Genoa form (all competitions): LWLDLD
Team News
© Reuters
Benevento are without Gabriele Moncini, Nicolas Viola, Luca Caldirola and Massimo Volta through injury for the visit of Genoa.
Schiattarella is also unavailable through suspension having been sent off against Lazio.
Genoa, meanwhile, have a full-blown injury crisis, with former Chelsea full-back Davide Zappacosta, Federico Marchetti, Francesco Cassata, Davide Biraschi, Cristian Zapata, Goran Pandev and Vittorio Parigini all unavailable due to injury.
Former West Ham United midfielder Valon Behrami will be hoping for a start having only been used from the substitutes' bench against Milan.
Benevento possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Letizia, Tuia, Glik, Barba; Hetemaj, Dabo, Ionita; Insigne, Caprari; Lapadula
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Perin; Goldaniga, Bani, Masiello, Pellegrini; Ghiglione, Lerager, Sturaro, Pjaca; Shomurodov, Destro
We say: Benevento 1-1 Genoa
With both sides fairly evenly-matched and suffering from plenty of injuries, we can see a stalemate ensuing with both sides prioritising avoiding defeat ahead of winning.
Destro showed signs of life against his former club Milan on Wednesday, though, so if Genoa can create him a few chances, he could win the game for them.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benevento win with a probability of 44.49%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 30.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benevento win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Genoa win was 0-1 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benevento would win this match.
