Borussia Dortmund will be expected to return to winning ways in the Bundesliga when they host bottom-of-the-table Greuther Furth at Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday evening.
The hosts lost ground on Bayern Munich at the top of the table when they drew at the weekend, whilst the visitors recorded their first win of the campaign at the 15th attempt.
Match preview
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As a result of a disappointing 1-1 draw at newly-promoted VfL Bochum on Saturday, Dortmund fell six points behind league-leaders Bayern after they picked up a narrow victory.
Were it not for substitute Julian Brandt's late goal five minutes from time though, BVB would have fallen to a shock defeat despite their domination for most of the game.
A loss would have made it consecutive defeats in the Bundesliga following the 3-2 defeat to Bayern in Der Klassiker the previous weekend, which meant that Marco Rose's side missed out on the opportunity to overtake their rivals at the summit at that point.
After the two setbacks though, Dortmund will head into the winter break in second place at best, although with favourable fixtures against Greuther and Hertha Berlin at the weekend to follow prior to the break, they will be expected to pick up six points with the hope of a rare Bayern slip up in order to give them confidence of preventing the Bavarians from recording a 10th straight title.
The return of Erling Braut Haaland in recent weeks has at least boosted the Black and Yellows in front of goal, and the fitness of the Norwegian striker will prove pivotal in the title race, with him netting 11 Bundesliga goals in only nine appearances already to this point.
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Meanwhile, visitors Greuther have given themselves the slightest bit of hope in their quest to avoid an immediate return to the 2.Bundesliga.
With just a single point being picked up in their opening 14 fixtures prior to Sunday's home clash with Union Berlin, as well as a division-worst 46 goals conceded in that time, the Cloverleaves looked set for a miserable second-ever season in the top flight.
The 1-0 victory over Union at the weekend came with a bit of fortune though, with Stefan Leitl's side on the back foot for much of the encounter, but Leitl will not be too concerned however, with the three points being far more important and precious to him and his team.
Havard Nielsen was the hero early in the second half, with the Norwegian forward netting his first goal of the campaign to provide his side with their first victory.
A trip to title-challenging Dortmund is far from ideal on Wednesday though, with the daunting visit of Signal Iduna Park providing little opportunity for Greuther to follow up their sole win with another, particularly when all four of their points so far have arrived on home soil.
Greuther remain rooted to the bottom of the table and 13 points from complete safety despite the victory on Sunday, but they will visit the giants with no pressure on their shoulders and will be sure to enjoy the occasion against the stars of BVB.
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Team News
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Dortmund are likely to be without left-back Raphael Guerreiro again on Wednesday, with Nico Schulz expected to deputise once more for the Portuguese international.
Fellow defender Manuel Akanji remains out until after the winter break, so Dan-Axel Zagadou will continue to partner Mats Hummels at the heart of the defence.
With Donyell Malen remaining unavailable due to a virus, Brandt could come into the forward line alongside Haaland and Marco Reus.
Roman Burki, Youssoufa Moukoko, Giovanni Reyna, Mateu Morey and Marcel Schmelzer all remain sidelined for the hosts.
As for Greuther, Leitl will be unlikely to alter his starting 11 despite the short turnaround in fixtures in midweek.
A winning lineup has been sought after all campaign, so with one finally coming off on Sunday, the same players are likely to be handed another chance to perform a miracle on Wednesday.
Goalkeeper Marius Funk is out for the season, meaning Sascha Burchert will feature between the posts once more, whilst the defensive trio of Nick Viergever, Justin Hoogma and Gideon Jung are sidelined too.
Robin Kehr and Jessic Ngankam are suffering from long-term injuries too, with the forwards out until next year.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Meunier, Hummels, Zagadou, Schulz; Dahoud, Witsel, Bellingham; Brandt, Reus; Haaland
Greuther Furth possible starting lineup:
Burchert; Meyerhofer, Griesbeck, Bauer, Willems; Seguin, Christiansen, Tillman; Hrgota, Abiama, Nielsen
We say: Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Greuther Furth
Unfortunately for the visitors, it is difficult to see past a comprehensive home victory at Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday.
The gulf in class should be clear to see between the two sides, and although Greuther will battle hard to avoid a heavy defeat, Dortmund will be looking for a comfortable win to potentially cut the gap at the top of the table.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 85.21%. A draw had a probability of 9.5% and a win for Greuther Furth had a probability of 5.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.79%) and 4-0 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.17%), while for a Greuther Furth win it was 1-2 (1.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Borussia Dortmund in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Borussia Dortmund.
