Borussia Monchengladbach entertain Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with time running out for these two sides in terms of their Champions League qualification hopes.
Gladbach narrowly pipped Leverkusen to fourth spot last season, but on current form neither of these sides will be representing Germany in Europe's elite competition next season.
Match preview
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Gladbach certainly appear to be in a state of flux at present, with manager Marco Rose set to depart for Borussia Dortmund in the summer and results recently suffering, perhaps in part as a result of that announcement.
Die Fohlen looked back to their best in a lightning first-half performance at RB Leipzig last weekend, though, with Dayot Upamecano's needless challenge on Breel Embolo allowing Jonas Hofmann to squeeze the ball past Peter Gulacsi from the penalty spot. Thirteen minutes later, excellent wing play by Valentino Lazaro found Embolo at the back post, with the Swiss striker's header diverting off Marcus Thuram into the back of Leipzig's net.
However, familiar defensive nervousness and vulnerabilities remained in Gladbach's backline, with Leipzig creditably mounting serious pressure after the break. Christopher Nkunku and Yussuf Poulsen fired Julian Nagelsmann's side level either side of the hour mark, with Alexander Sorloth breaking Gladbach hearts with the last kick of the game to complete a phenomenal turn and keep his side's title hopes intact.
Rose's side suffered a further setback in midweek, with the 44-year-old's hopes of departing the club with a trophy ending after a 1-0 loss to his future club Dortmund in the DFB-Pokal quarter-final. With a nine point deficit to Eintracht Frankfurt in fourth place, Rose's remit is likely to have reduced to securing Europa League football as a parting gift to the club he has served so well, with forthcoming opponents Leverkusen likely to prove a rival in that sense once again.
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Leverkusen, meanwhile, are still only five points adrift of Frankfurt, but look to be squandering their hopes of qualifying for the Champions League having been top of the table as recently as December 19.
Peter Bosz's side's 2-1 defeat at home to Freiburg last weekend was all too predictable, with Die Werkself dominating possession and the match's shot count, but falling foul to two clinical counter-attacks from the visitors.
Christian Streich had his goalkeeper Florian Muller to be thankful for the score remaining level at the half-time interval, with the 23-year-old making three excellent saves to deny Florian Wirtz, Leon Bailey and Demarai Gray in the early exchanges.
Lucas Holer and Ermedin Demirovic each combined for Freiburg's goals, with Bailey's fizzing finish in response not built on in terms of recovering a point from the game. However, Bosz may fancy his side's chances against a Gladbach side seemingly mired in even deeper implosion mode, with a win potentially resurrecting either side's season.
Borussia Monchengladbach Bundesliga form: WDLDLL
Borussia Monchengladbach form (all competitions): LDLLLL
Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga form: LLWDDL
Bayer Leverkusen form (all competitions): WDLDLL
Team News
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Gladbach will be without Lars Stindl after their top goalscorer picked up his fifth caution of the season during the defeat to Leipzig.
Tony Jantschke continues to be sidelined by a muscle injury, but otherwise Rose has a clean bill of health to select from.
Bosz could only wish for such fortune, with Timothy Fosu-Mensah and Julian Baumgartlinger both out for the foreseeable future with ACL injuries. Jeremie Frimpong, Sven Bender, Santiago Arias and Paulinho could return this month but not in time for the visit of Gladbach, while first-choice goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky is out until April with an Achilles tendon issue.
Twenty-two-year-old Lennart Grill came in between the sticks to make his debut against Freiburg and should retain his place, with the returning Moussa Diaby likely to replace Bailey after the Jamaica winger picked up his fifth booking of the season and a subsequent suspension last time out.
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Lainer, Ginter, Elvedi, Bensebaini; Kramer, Neuhaus, Zakaria; Plea, Embolo, Hofmann
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Grill; Dragovic, Tah, Tapsoba, Wendell; Demirbay, Aranguiz, Wirtz; Diaby, Schick, Gray
We say: Borussia Monchengladbach 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen
We can see an entertaining score draw between these two sides, both of whom it is fair to say are more comfortable attacking than they are defending.
In truth, a share of the spoils would probably do neither club any favour in terms of finishing in the top four, but those ambitions appear to be increasingly unlikely in any case.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 55.2%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 22.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.36%) and 0-2 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a Borussia Monchengladbach win it was 2-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
