MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 13:37:53| >> :60:28:28:
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Jun 8, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Nublense

Aucas
0 - 0
Nublense


Carcelen (89')
Caicedo (10')
FT

Zalazar (34'), Caroca (45+5'), Oyarzo (46'), Rubio (48'), Aranguiz (52'), Henriquez (74')
Zalazar (38')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Aucas and Nublense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aucas

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Last Game: Aucas 1-2 Racing
Wednesday, May 24 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
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Nublense

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Last Game: Nublense 1-1 Flamengo
Thursday, May 25 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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We said: Aucas 1-1 Nublense

 Aucas will be hopeful of gaining revenge over Nublense when the Chilean club visit Ecuador, but the hosts may have to settle for a point as they aim to end a run of three straight losses. Given that Nublense have suffered a solitary defeat in their last six outings across all competitions, we expect the Red Devils to frustrate El Idolo de Quito once again. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aucas win with a probability of 52.96%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Nublense had a probability of 21.81%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aucas win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a Nublense win it was 0-1 (7.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
AucasDrawNublense
52.96% (-0.479 -0.48) 25.22% (0.303 0.3) 21.81% (0.171 0.17)
Both teams to score 47.67% (-0.652 -0.65)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.59% (-0.97499999999999 -0.97)54.4% (0.968 0.97)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.22% (-0.818 -0.82)75.77% (0.812 0.81)
Aucas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.45% (-0.58000000000001 -0.58)20.54% (0.575 0.57)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.94% (-0.925 -0.93)53.05% (0.92 0.92)
Nublense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60% (-0.38200000000001 -0.38)39.99% (0.377 0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.35% (-0.35 -0.35)76.64% (0.345 0.34)
Score Analysis
    Aucas 52.95%
    Nublense 21.81%
    Draw 25.21%
AucasDrawNublense
1-0 @ 13% (0.26 0.26)
2-0 @ 10.28% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.43% (-0.076000000000001 -0.08)
3-0 @ 5.43% (-0.085 -0.09)
3-1 @ 4.98% (-0.13 -0.13)
3-2 @ 2.28% (-0.084 -0.08)
4-0 @ 2.15% (-0.073 -0.07)
4-1 @ 1.97% (-0.088 -0.09)
4-2 @ 0.9% (-0.05 -0.05)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 52.95%
1-1 @ 11.91% (0.11 0.11)
0-0 @ 8.22% (0.306 0.31)
2-2 @ 4.32% (-0.08 -0.08)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 25.21%
0-1 @ 7.53% (0.205 0.21)
1-2 @ 5.46% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 3.45% (0.059 0.06)
1-3 @ 1.67% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.32% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.05% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 1.33%
Total : 21.81%

How you voted: Aucas vs Nublense

Aucas
33.3%
Draw
50.0%
Nublense
16.7%
6
Head to Head
May 2, 2023 11pm
Group Stage
Nublense
2-1
Aucas
Rubio (79'), Vilches (90+1')
Otero (24')
rhs 2.0
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