The National League's bottom side Dover Athletic travel west on Saturday, when they will face 16th-placed Torquay United at Plainmoor in their 14th outing of the 2021-22 season.
Dover are a massive 20 points away from safety and already look certain to be relegated, after losing 10 and drawing three of their opening fixtures, while trying to recover from a 12-point deduction.
Match preview
After being knocked out of the FA Cup in the qualifying rounds, Torquay did not have a scheduled fixture last weekend, meaning that their last outing came two weeks ago.
Gary Johnson's side travelled to Wales last time out and after Harry Lennon had given Wrexham an early lead, Connor Lemonheigh-Evans equalised for the visitors just six minutes from the full-time whistle.
That result has left Torquay 10 points behind Notts County, who currently occupy the final playoff position, with a promotion push being the aim for Johnson's team this campaign.
The hosts will be looking to equal their best spell of the season by avoiding defeat on Saturday, which would take them to three consecutive games unbeaten.
Torquay will also be glad to be on home soil this weekend, as their last three games at Plainmoor have all ended in victory for Johnson's side, and in that time goalkeeper Shaun MacDonald kept three clean sheets.
Dover have not tasted victory yet this season, and even without a points deduction Andy Hessenthaler's side would be rooted to the bottom of the National League.
Athletic are currently on a straight six-game losing streak, which was continued just over a week ago when Dover visited fellow strugglers Southend United.
It was a comfortable day at the office for Southend, who put four past Dover goalkeeper Adam Parkes, while Ryan Hanson's first strike of the season was only a consolation goal for the visitors.
Hessenthaler's side have only managed to find the back of the net on nine occasions this campaign, the lowest in the league, while they have also conceded the most goals, which is not a successful mix of stats.
History between these two teams suggests that this game is a tight one to call, with both teams having won four of their last nine meetings, but given Dover's poor start to the campaign, the home side enter Saturday's clash as favourites.
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Team News
Armani Little will provide the biggest threat in front of goal for Torquay, having netted five times in 11 league appearances this season, the top goalscorer at the club this campaign.
Johnson named an unchanged lineup against Wrexham last time out, meaning that it is likely the same 11 will take to the field again this weekend, including a back four consisting of Dean Moxey, Chiori Johnson, Ben Wynter and Lemonheigh-Evans.
Hessenthaler made two changes to his Dover side last time out with TJ Bramble and Travis Gregory coming into the team in place of Nana Ofori-Twumasi and Yannis Drais.
AFC Wimbledon loanee Aaron Cosgrave is Dover's top goalscorer this season with four strikes to his name, and he will lead the line alongside Hanson this weekend.
Torquay United possible starting lineup:
MacDonald; Wynter, Johnson, Lemonheigh-Evans, Moxey; Perritt, Lewis, Little, Holman; Lolos, Armstrong
Dover Athletic possible starting lineup:
Parkes; Collinge, Tiensia, Bramble; Ransom, Arthur, Williamson, Johnson, Gregory; Cosgrave, Hanson
We say: Torquay United 2-0 Dover Athletic
Having won their last three games at Plainmoor, Torquay will be confident of extending that to four matches with victory over Dover, who have only picked up one point on their travels.
Dover have not shown many signs which suggest that their form is going to turn for the better, and they travel to a Torquay side which is very confident on their own patch.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torquay United win with a probability of 66.19%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Dover Athletic had a probability of 14.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torquay United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.18%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.13%), while for a Dover Athletic win it was 0-1 (4.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Torquay United would win this match.
