Freiburg will be aiming to end their nine-game winless run in the Bundesliga when they welcome fellow strugglers Arminia Bielefeld to the Schwarzwald-Stadion on Saturday afternoon.
The hosts played out a 2-2 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach last time out, whereas Arminia won only their second game of the season with a 2-1 triumph over Mainz 05.
Match preview
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Being able to take points off Monchengladbach is certainly something worth celebrating for a struggling Freiburg side, although that may have been down to the Champions League contenders' fatigue rather than anything else.
Nevertheless, Christian Streich's men walked away with a share of the spoils as goals from Philipp Lienhart and Vincenzo Grifo cancelled out Breel Embolo and Alassane Plea's strikes for Monchengladbach, although that four-goal draw still means that Freiburg are yet to win on their own turf this season.
Breisgau-Brasilianer triumphed 3-2 over newly-promoted Stuttgart on the opening day of the season, but Freiburg have since drawn five and lost four in the top flight as they languish in 14th heading into gameweek 11, and it is highly unlikely that Streich's men will be able to rise any higher with a rare victory.
Hertha Berlin and Werder Bremen sit three points clear of Freiburg, but Breisgau-Brasilianer's goal difference is far worse than their bottom-half rivals and Streich's side are still waiting for that elusive first clean sheet of the season, although Freiburg may feel confident about their chances of prevailing against an equally underwhelming Arminia Bielefeld.
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Arminia's relatively solid start to the season is firmly in the past now, with Uwe Neuhaus's men one of the early favourites to finish below the dotted line and make a swift return to the second division.
However, last season's 2.Bundesliga champions triumphed for the first time since gameweek two at the weekend as they overcame fellow strugglers Mainz - a result which saw Arminia end a six-game losing run in the top flight.
Manuel Prietl and Ritsu Doan put Neuhaus's men in control before the break, and while Mainz's Kevin Stoger came off the bench to score and set up a tense finale, Arminia held on for a vital win which sees them climb out of the automatic relegation zone.
The newly-promoted visitors currently occupy the relegation playoff spot after leapfrogging Mainz last weekend, and with Freiburg just not able to get over the line in 90 minutes, Neuhaus's men can afford to feel cautiously optimistic about their chances of rising higher up the table when they pay a visit to the Schwarzwald-Stadion.
Freiburg and Arminia most recently locked horns in the 2015-16 2.Bundesliga campaign, where the two strugglers played out a 2-2 draw on Freiburg's turf before Breisgau-Brasilianer won 4-1 away.
Freiburg Bundesliga form: DLLLDD
Arminia Bielefeld Bundesliga form: LLLLLW
Team News
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Freiburg have been boosted by the return of Janik Haberer to training after a lengthy layoff with an ankle injury, but the 26-year-old will not be ready for first-team action just yet.
Kwon Chang-hoon could potentially come back into contention after recovering from coronavirus, but Mark Flekken and Lukas Kubler remain sidelined despite stepping up their recoveries from muscle and elbow injuries respectively.
Roland Sallai was fit enough to come off the bench against Monchengladbach and he may start here, with Nils Petersen also vying for a recall up top.
Arminia have a relatively clean bill of health for this one, although Reinhold Yabo is reported to have suffered a minor injury before he was replaced on the hour mark against Mainz, and he could be a doubt here.
Amos Pieper has not been able to shake off a muscular complaint in time to return for this one, but Neuhaus has no need to make wholesale changes from the all-important victory last Saturday.
Andreas Voglsammer will not be involved for the visitors either after picking up a muscle injury in training, which could keep him out for a month.
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Muller; Schmid, Lienhart, Gulde, Gunter; Sallai, Hofler, Santamaria, Grifo; Petersen, Demirovic
Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Moreno; Brunner, Van der Hoorn, Nilsson, Lucoqui; Doan, Prietl, Hartel, Yabo; Schipplock, Klos
We say: Freiburg 2-0 Arminia Bielefeld
Freiburg's position in the Bundesliga table is becoming more precarious by the week, and Arminia have every right to be feeling confident after finally picking up a vital win last week. However, Breisgau-Brasilianer were full value for their draw with Monchengladbach and will view this match as the perfect opportunity to give their fans something to cheer about, so we are backing Streich's side to pick up a long-overdue three points.
Top betting tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 43.19%. A win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Arminia Bielefeld win was 0-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
