Greuther Furth continue their fight for survival in the Bundesliga when they welcome European hopefuls FC Koln on Saturday.
The hosts remain cut adrift at the foot of the table but have showed plenty of signs of promise in recent weeks, whilst the visitors maintained the pressure on the sides above them in the table by returning to winning ways last weekend.
Match preview
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Despite putting in an admirable display for much of last weekend, Greuther eventually fell to a 4-1 defeat at league-leaders Bayern Munich last Sunday.
Branimir Hrgota netted for the third game running to provide the minnows with a shock half-time lead during a solid display, but after Robert Lewandowski equalised for the champions within seconds of the restart, the points were only heading in one direction.
The impressive performance continued the ongoing theme of an upturn in form for the Cloverleaves since mid-December though, with away defeats at Bayern, Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund being the only losses in their last nine Bundesliga outings.
In reality though, Stefan Leitl's side remain almost certain to face an immediate return to the 2.Bundesliga come May, with nine points separating them from Augsburg in the relegation playoff spot at the time of writing, and 10 points from Hertha Berlin in complete safety.
Home form could be key to any miraculous survival hopes however, with Greuther having won three and drawn two of their last five fixtures played in front of their own supporters, with just the two goals being conceded in that time as well.
Should they manage to pick up another home win on Saturday, then that glimmer of hope will certainly increase, ahead of what would surely be the greatest escape of any side in recent history, were they able to survive.
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Meanwhile, Koln's focus is at the top end of the table heading into matchday 24, with the Billy Goats bouncing back from their 3-1 defeat at RB Leipzig to see off Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 at the RheinEnergieStadion last weekend.
Anthony Modeste was the hero once more, with the Frenchman netting his 15th Bundesliga goal of the season with just six minutes of normal time remaining to provide his side with the three points.
With the three sides directly above them in the table - Freiburg, Hoffenheim and Leipzig - all winning as well, Steffen Baumgart's side could only climb one place up to seventh following the impressive performance and result.
However, the relegation fears of the last few years remain well in the past now for a side going from strength to strength under Baumgart this campaign, and his side remain just two points off the Champions League places as we head into the final third of the season.
Trips like the one to relegation-threatened Greuther facing Koln on Saturday are where Baumgart will fancy his side to pick up another three points, but with only two league victories being recorded away from the RheinEnergieStadion all season, the visitors must find a solution to their away day troubles in order to do so.
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Team News
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Greuther look set to be without attacking midfielder Jeremy Dudziak for around a month of action, with the Tunisian being forced off early on at the Allianz Arena last weekend due to a hip injury.
Havard Nielsen came off the bench to replace him on that occasion, and the Norwegian is expected to deputise again on Saturday, in what is most likely the only change to Leitl's starting 11.
Marius Funk, Robin Kehr and Jessic Ngankam are all out for the long term, whilst Gideon Jung also remains sidelined due to a knee injury.
As for the visitors, goalkeeper Marvin Schwabe is fit again so Baumgart faces a decision of whether to bring him straight back in for usual first-choice goalkeeper Timo Horn, who Schwabe has been deputising for impressively for a large part of the campaign.
Modeste is likely to regain his starting spot ahead of Sebastian Andersson in attack, but there are unlikely to be any further changes for the visitors.
Defender Jannes Horn is suffering from a bout of illness so he is a doubt for the trip to Greuther, but he remains the only potential absentee as things stand.
Greuther Furth possible starting lineup:
Linde; Meyerhofer, Griesbeck, Viergever, Itter; Seguin, Christiansen, Tillman; Nielsen; Hrgota, Leweling
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Schmitz, Kilian, Hubers, Hector; Skhiri, Ozcan; Ljubicic, Uth, Kainz; Modeste
We say: Greuther Furth 0-1 FC Koln
Despite Greuther's improvement in performances and results of late, we can see the visitors picking up all three points on Saturday, with Koln being in such superb form either side of the winter break.
The hosts remain a tough outfit to break down on home soil, whilst the visitors have been a well-drilled side all season, so one goal could be enough to win this encounter.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 47.56%. A win for Greuther Furth had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.89%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Greuther Furth win was 2-1 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.
