Hertha Berlin take on Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with the hosts in desperate need of a positive result to put some distance between themselves and the relegation zone in the table.
Augsburg did exactly that by winning 1-0 at Mainz 05 last weekend, moving eight points clear of Hertha and the bottom three in the process.
Match preview
© Reuters
After re-appointing Pal Dardai as manager towards the end of January, it is fair to say that the Hertha board would have expected a better return than one point from five games from the 44-year-old.
In fairness, though, it has not been an easy start for the Hungarian, with the four defeats his side have suffered coming against the top four sides in the table.
Hertha were unfortunate once again in last weekend's 2-0 defeat at Wolfsburg, with very little between the two sides on the day. Indeed, the visitors were dogged defensively throughout, with Lukas Klunter's 37th-minute own goal proving the decisive moment in the match before Maxence Lacroix made sure of the three points for the Wolves with a header one minute from time.
With two more tough tests against Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen following the game against Augsburg, Dardai must be treating Saturday's match as a must win, otherwise his side could well find themselves dropping into the bottom three at the expense of Arminia Bielefeld or Mainz.
© Reuters
While Augsburg are not safe just yet, last weekend's win at Mainz was certainly a huge moment in Heiko Herrlich's side's season, with a comfortable cushion generated between themselves and the bottom three as a result.
Indeed, while this is Augsburg's 10th consecutive season in the Bundesliga, surviving relegation is always the primary aim for a club of their size.
For the second consecutive match, after Niklas Lomb's blunder for Leverkusen the previous week, Herrlich's side pounced on an early goalkeeping error when Mainz's Robin Zentner inexplicably passed straight to Florian Niederlechner, who squared the ball for Andre Hahn to tap into an empty net.
Augsburg are generally a tough cookie to break down once they do gain a lead, as Bo Svensson's side found out as they desperately searched for an equaliser. In truth, the visitors looked like the more likely side to score the second goal in the game, and they will certainly be hoping for a similar away performance and result in Berlin on Saturday.
Hertha Berlin Bundesliga form: LLLDLL
Augsburg Bundesliga form: WLLLDW
Team News
© Reuters
Hertha will be without several first-team players for the visit of Augsburg due to injury, with Matheus Cunha, Sami Khedira, Mathew Leckie, Jordan Torunarigha, Marvin Plattenhardt, Nemanja Radonjic, Javairo Dilrosun and Dedryck Boyata all sidelined.
Krzysztof Piatek, Dodi Lukebakio and Jhon Cordoba will be vying for a start in Dardai's attack.
Augsburg, meanwhile, will travel to Berlin without the injured quartet of Iago, Alfred Finnbogason, Fredrik Jensen and Tim Civeja.
Herrlich is likely to utilise the same XI which won in Mainz last weekend, although Ruben Vargas could be considered having been an unused substitute last time out.
Hertha Berlin possible starting lineup:
Jarstein; Pekarik, Stark, Alderete, Mittelstadt; Tousart, Guendouzi, Darida; Lukebakio, Piatek, Cordoba
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Framberger, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai, Pedersen; Strobl, Khedira; Caligiuri, Benes, Hahn; Niederlechner
We say: Hertha Berlin 1-1 Augsburg
We can envisage a share of the spoils in Berlin on Saturday, with much dependent on the side Dardai selects.
The 44-year-old has been unfortunate with the schedule which he has been handed early in his second spell at Hertha, but he surely needs to utilise more attacking players from what is undoubtedly a talented squad.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hertha Berlin win with a probability of 39.03%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 35.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hertha Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 0-1 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hertha Berlin would win this match.
