Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 60.69%. A draw had a probability of 23.38% and a win for Slovenia had a probability of 15.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%) , while for a Slovenia win it was 0-1 (6.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.