For a second successive time at the CONCACAF Nations League, Panama will feature in the third-place playoff as they face Jamaica on Sunday at AT&T Stadium.
On Thursday, the Reggae Boyz suffered a heartbreaking 3-1 defeat to the USA in extra time, while Los Canaleros were beaten handily 3-0 by Mexico.
Match preview
© Reuters
The Reggae Boyz were moments away from a colossal and unpredictable triumph in the Nations League semi-finals before a stroke of bad luck changed everything.
An own-goal from Cory Burke off an American corner in the sixth minute of stoppage time levelled that match at one, as Heimir Hallgrimsson saw his side fall apart in extra time, conceding twice more.
As devastating as losing in that manner had to have been, the Jamaicans still have something to play for this weekend, as they have never won a medal in this competition.
The last time the Reggae Boyz were on the podium was at the 2017 CONCACAF Gold Cup, when they finished as runners-up to the US.
Sunday will mark only the second time they face a Central American side in this competition, with the first time being in the group stage this season, defeating Honduras 1-0.
Their last victory against the Panamanians occurred on US soil at the 2019 Gold Cup when a Darren Mattocks strike in the 75th minute gave the Reggae Boyz a 1-0 triumph in Philadelphia.
© Reuters
Panama's run of great form came to a screeching halt earlier this week as El Tri exposed them badly throughout their semi-final affair.
Thomas Christiansen's men were playing far too high up the field throughout the encounter, and Mexico made them pay as the Panamanians gave up three goals in 90 minutes for the first time since a June 2022 friendly defeat to Uruguay (5-0).
On Thursday, Los Canaleros gave up as many goals as they had in their opening six matches played in the 2023-24 Nations League campaign (three).
Panama have yet to score a goal beyond the quarter-final stage of this tournament, losing by a combined margin of 6-0 in the Nations League semi-finals or third-place matches.
While this is not the match they were hoping to play in, Panama will fancy their chances of walking away with a medal, going unbeaten against Caribbean nations since a 1-0 loss to Jamaica at the 2019 Gold Cup.
That was the only time in the last decade that Panama had suffered a defeat against the Reggae Boyz, with Los Canaleros emerging victorious in four of the previous five meetings.
Team News
© Reuters
Demarai Gray missed the semi-final match for the Reggae Boyz through suspension, as the Jamaicans made virtually wholesale changes from the side that started in their 3-2 victory over Canada.
Kaheim Dixon collected his first international cap on Thursday, and Kasey Palmer started for the first time at this tournament since matchday two.
Greg Leigh scored his first international goal in the opening minute of their semi-final affair, but it was not enough, as Andre Blake conceded three times.
Christiansen made two changes to the Panamanian starting 11 in the semi-finals, bringing in Cesar Blackman and Anibal Godoy to replace Michael Murillo and Cristian Martinez.
Adalberto Carrasquilla collected his 50th cap in the loss to Mexico, Jose Luis Rodriguez is seven away from that mark and Yoel Barcenas can reach 80 this weekend.
Their leading goalscorer at this tournament, Jose Fajardo, saw his two-match Nations League scoring run end on Thursday, while the last international goal scored by Eric Davis came in a 2022 World Cup qualifier versus Jamaica, a match that Panama won 3-2.
Jamaica possible starting lineup:
Blake; Bernard, Hector, D. Lowe; Lembikisa, Johnson, Decordova-Reid, Leigh; Dixon, Williams, Cephas
Panama possible starting lineup:
Mosquera; Escobar, Anderson, Andrade; Blackman, Martinez, Carrasquilla, Lenis; Fajardo, Waterman, Rodriguez
We say: Jamaica 0-1 Panama
After being seconds away from advancing, we wonder what the state of mind of the Reggae Boyz will be heading into a match which is really only for pride.
The Panamanians will be disappointed with their semi-final performance, but they always seem to bounce back quickly from a rough outing, and we believe they will do so again on Sunday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panama win with a probability of 57.47%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Jamaica had a probability of 19.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panama win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.44%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.95%), while for a Jamaica win it was 0-1 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Jamaica in this match.
Joel Lefevre
