Matchday 25 in the Bundesliga concludes with two European hopefuls going head to head at the RheinEnergieStadion on Sunday, with FC Koln hosting Hoffenheim.
The hosts remain well in the hunt for a surprise top-six finish despite a minor setback last weekend, whilst the visitors extended their winning streak to keep the pressure on the sides above them in the table.
Match preview
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Koln lost ground in the race for the European places when they dropped two points at bottom-of-the-table Greuther Furth last weekend.
After failing to find an opener during a dominant first half, Florian Kainz popped up just after the break to provide a deserved lead for the Billy Goats, but Sebastian Griesbeck was on hand to equalise for their hosts during an encounter that lacked big opportunities for either side throughout.
In recent years, a draw would not have seemed a disappointing result, but with Steffen Baumgart's side looking to continue their excellent campaign so far by edging out one of the giants of German football for a European place come May, they could well look on last weekend's point as two dropped, rather than one earned.
The result saw Koln drop a place to eighth in the table, but with only four points separating them from the teams occupying the final three European spots, including Sunday's opponents Hoffenheim, the hosts remain in a strong position to achieve their dreams.
Returning home to the RheinEnergieStadion provides a further boost to the hopes of Baumgart's men at the weekend, with 24 of their 36 league points so far this campaign arriving at the fortress.
Only two visiting sides have managed to come away with all three points during the 2021-22 season to this point, one of which was leaders Bayern Munich, and after winning three of their last four league outings there, Koln will possess plenty of confidence in closing the gap on the sides above them by recording a victory on Sunday.
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Meanwhile, Hoffenheim continued the revival of their hopes of reaching Europe's grand stage by defeating a struggling Stuttgart side by a 2-1 scoreline last Friday.
For much of their clash, it appeared as though Sebastian Hoeness's side would be denied a third straight win however, after Wataru Endo provided their visitors with a shock 1-0 lead just before the hour mark.
After failing to capitalise on their dominance in the opening 45, Hoffenheim were sluggish in the second half, but Christoph Baumgartner made himself a hero by netting a brace inside the final five minutes of normal time to turn the game on its head in an instant.
The winning streak has lifted Die Kraichgauer into sixth at the time of writing, level on points with RB Leipzig and Freiburg in the race for the top six.
Considering their position at this stage of the campaign though, Hoeness and his team will not be content with only a top-six finish, with qualification for next season's Champions League remaining firmly in their sights.
Following eight straight victories against Sunday's opponents, which includes a 5-0 thumping back at the PreZero Arena in October, the visitors are unlikely to be daunted by Koln's solid home form this campaign, and will instead be focused on making it 12 points from a possible 12 in order to keep their Champions League dream alive.
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Team News
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Koln have just the one absentee to contend with ahead of Sunday's battle, with impressive defender Timo Hubers being ruled out following a positive COVID-19 test result this week.
Julian Chabot is the option likely to deputise at the heart of the defence, although Jannes Horn could also push for a start following his return to training earlier in the week.
Dejan Ljubicic has also resumed work on the training ground and is in contention to returning to the starting 11, which could see 19-year-old Jan Thielmann's starting berth come under threat as a result.
As for the visitors, Hoeness has a decision to make in the centre of the pitch, with Dennis Geiger and Sebastian Rudy both picking up injuries last week.
The former is still suffering from concussion and remains a doubt, with his replacement Rudy then picking up a hamstring problem, which has ruled him out of Sunday's trip.
Angelo Stiller should recover from a fever to deputise for the duo alongside last weekend's match-winner Baumgartner, although Diadie Samassekou is another option to consider.
Ermin Bicakcic, Havard Nordtveit, Kevin Vogt, Benjamin Hubner, Chris Richards and Robert Skov are all sidelined in a lengthy list of absentees for Hoffenheim.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Schmitz, Kilian, Chabot, Hector; Ozcan, Skhiri; Ljubicic, Uth, Kainz; Modeste
Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Posch, Grillitsch, Akpoguma; Kaderabek, Baumgartner, Stiller, Raum; Rutter, Kramaric; Bebou
We say: FC Koln 1-1 Hoffenheim
With very little between these two sides in the build up to their meeting on Sunday, it is difficult to see either coming away with all three points.
Koln could well nick a narrow victory thanks to their impressive form at the RheinEnergieStadion, as well as the number of injuries hampering the visitors, but we are going for a tight encounter to finish level.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 43.33%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 33.29% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (6.09%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 1-2 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
