FC Koln and Mainz 05 will both be looking to bounce back from Bundesliga defeats when they lock horns at the RheinEnergieStadion on Saturday afternoon.
The hosts have won only four of their last eight league fixtures on home soil, while the visitors have won only two of their last 15 matches on the road and they are yet to win an away game in 2022.
Match preview
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After securing four points from two games against Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund, Koln were beaten 1-0 away at Union Berlin last Friday.
Despite dominating proceedings with 64% possession, a 49th-minute strike from Taiwo Awoniyi was enough for the hosts to claim maximum points and condemn the visitors to their eighth league defeat of the season.
Nevertheless, Steffen Baumgart's side remain in the hunt to qualify for Europe next season, as they currently sit eighth in the Bundesliga table, four points behind Hoffenheim in sixth and five points behind fifth-placed Freiburg.
Koln have failed to win three of their last five home matches, albeit against Bayern Munich, Hoffenheim and Dortmund, but they head into Saturday's game having lost only one of their 10 home encounters with Mainz.
That defeat, however, was in April last season, with the 05ers securing a 3-2 win thanks to a 91st-minute winner from Leandro Martins.
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Mainz's hopes of securing European football for next season are seemingly all but over, as they have won only one of their last five Bundesliga matches, a run of form which has seen them slip out of the top half of the table.
A 1-1 draw away at Borussia Monchengladbach last weekend was followed by a 2-1 away defeat against Augsburg on Wednesday. Silvan Widmar's 54th-minute strike cancelled out Jeffrey Gouweleeuw's first-half opener from the penalty spot, but Ruben Vargas restored the host's lead just two minutes later and they eventually held on for all three points.
Bo Svensson's side have dropped down to 10th in the Bundesliga standings, six points behind the top six with only six league games remaining.
Mainz are now preparing for their third successive away fixture and they will be looking to end their nine-game winless run on the road, dating back to October 30 last year. Only Greuther Furth (two) have accumulated fewer points than Svensson's men (eight) away from home this season.
The 05ers can, however, travel to the RheinEnergieStadion with confidence as they are unbeaten in each of their last three away trips to Koln, including last season's 3-2 win and two score draws.
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Team News
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Koln's top scorer Anthony Modeste – who has 15 strikes to his name this term, 12 more than any of his teammates – is doubtful due to illness and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
The hosts will definitely be without centre-back Timo Hubers and midfielder Jan Thielmann, who will both serve one-match suspensions after picking up their fifth yellow card of the season last time out.
Benno Schmitz also remains sidelined with a hip injury, so Kingsley Ehizibue is set to retain his place at right-back, joining Luca Kilian, Julian Chabot and Jonas Hector in the back four.
Ondrej Duda is available after serving a one-match ban last week and he could be handed a start in an advanced midfield role, just in front of Salih Ozcan and Ellyes Skhiri.
As for Mainz, their only injury concern is with centre-back Jerry St Juste, who continues to recover from a shoulder problem.
Ever-present centre-back trio Stefan Bell, Moussa Niakate and Alexander Hack are all set to start once again, with Widmer and Aaron Caricol to operate as the wing-backs.
Newly-capped Germany international Anton Stach will be hoping to force his way back into the first XI ahead of either Dominik Kohr or Lee Jae-Sung in centre-midfield.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Ehizibue, Kilian, Chabot, Hector; Ozcan, Skhiri; Ljubicic, Uth, Kainz; Modeste
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Hack, Bell, Niakhate; Widmer, Martins, Stach, Boetius, Caricol; Burkardt, Onisiwo
We say: FC Koln 2-1 Mainz 05
Both sides will be keen to return to winning ways as they look to end the campaign on a high by securing at least a top-half finish.
The visitors have struggled away from home for some time, and although they were victorious in their last visit to Koln, we feel that the hosts will do enough to claim all three points, especially if Modeste is fit to lead the line.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 45.49%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 30.28% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Koln would win this match.
