Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celta Vigo win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 27.93% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celta Vigo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Celta Vigo would win this match.