La Liga Gameweek 38
Real Madrid
May 23, 2026 8.00pm
4
2
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Athletic Bilbao
  • Gonzalo García 12' goal
  • Jude Bellingham 41' goal
  • Kylian Mbappé 51' goal
  • Dean Huijsen 70' yellowcard
  • Arda Güler 74' yellowcard
  • Dani Ceballos 74' yellowcard
  • Brahim Díaz 74' yellowcard
  • Manuel Serrano Salazar 82' yellowcard
  • Manuel Serrano Salazar 84' yellowcard
  • Brahim Díaz 88' goal
  • yellowcard Andoni Gorosabel 45'
  • goal Gorka Guruzeta 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Andoni Gorosabel 46'
  • yellowcard Iñigo Lekue 60'
  • yellowcard Alejandro Rego 60'
  • yellowcard Urko Izeta 74'
  • yellowcard Mikel Vesga 85'
  • yellowcard Mikel Vesga 86'
  • goal Urko Izeta 90'+1'

Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions
Last game
May 17, 2026 6.00pm
Sevilla 0 - 1 Real Madrid
Goals scored
77
Top scorer
Kylian Mbappe

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
Last game
May 17, 2026 6.00pm
Athletic Bilbao 1 - 1 Celta Vigo
Goals scored
43
Top scorer
Gorka Guruzeta

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 67.23%. A draw had a probability of 19.08% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 13.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.63%) , while for a Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (3.85%).

Result

Real Madrid 67.23%
Draw 19.08% ▼ (-0.04)
Athletic Bilbao 13.66%

Both Teams to Score: 

53.41%

Goals

Over 1.5 81.17% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 18.83% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 59.87%
Under 2.5 40.13%
Over 3.5 38.75%
Under 3.5 61.25%
Over 4.5 26.44%
Under 4.5 73.56%

First Half Winner

Real Madrid 49.02%
Draw 36.1%
Athletic Bilbao 14.88%

Team To Score First

Real Madrid 67.12% ▲ (+0.02)
No Goal 4.78% ▼ (-0.01)
Athletic Bilbao 28.1%

Corners

Over 8 71.04%
Equal 8 9.24%
Under 8 19.72%
Over 9 60.58%
Equal 9 10.46%
Under 9 28.96%
Over 10.5 49.69%
Under 10.5 50.31%

Real Madrid Goals

Over 1.5 64.22% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 35.78% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 2.5 38.07%
Under 2.5 61.93%
Over 3.5 19.3% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 80.7% ▲ (+0.02)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5 47.33% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 0.5 52.67% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 1.5 18.65% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 81.35% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 6.06% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 2.5 93.94% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 1.61%
Under 3.5 98.39%

Score analysis

Real Madrid 67.23%
Draw 19.07%
Athletic Bilbao 13.67%
Real Madrid
2-0 @ 10.98% ▼ (-0.01)
1-0 @ 10.17% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 9.49%
3-0 @ 7.72% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 6.71%
3-2 @ 3.17%
Other @ 18.99%
Total : 67.23%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.63% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 4.78% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.18% ▼ (-0.02)
3-3 @ 1.17%
Other @ 0.31% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 19.07%
Athletic Bilbao
0-1 @ 3.85%
1-2 @ 3.57%
0-2 @ 1.67% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.5%
1-3 @ 1.43% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 1.3% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 13.67%

Head to Head

La Liga
Athletic Bilbao
Dec 3, 2025 6.00pm
0
3
HT : 0 2
FT
Real Madrid
  • Alex Berenguer 66' yellowcard
  • Alejandro Rego Mora 76' yellowcard
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 7'
  • goal Eduardo Camavinga 42'
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 59'
La Liga Gameweek 32
Real Madrid
Apr 20, 2025 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Athletic Bilbao
  • Raul Asencio del Rosario 75' yellowcard
  • Vinicius Junior 80' goal
  • Federico Valverde 90'+3' goal
  • yellowcard Unai Nunez 63'
  • yellowcard Benat Prados 86'
La Liga Gameweek 19
Athletic Bilbao
Dec 4, 2024 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 1
FT San Mames Barria
Real Madrid
  • Alex Berenguer 53' goal
  • Julen Agirrezabala 67' yellowcard
  • Lucas Vazquez 72' yellowcard
  • Gorka Guruzeta 80' goal
  • Jude Bellingham 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Gorka Guruzeta 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal 13'
  • yellowcard Aurelien Tchouameni 70'
  • yellowcard Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta 74'
  • goal Jude Bellingham 78'
La Liga Gameweek 30
Real Madrid
Mar 31, 2024 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Athletic Bilbao
  • Rodrygo 8' goal
  • Aurelien Tchouameni 57' yellowcard
  • Nacho 71' yellowcard
  • Rodrygo 73' goal
  • yellowcard Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta 87'
La Liga Gameweek 1
Athletic Bilbao
Aug 12, 2023 8.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 2
FT San Mames Barria
Real Madrid
  • Iker Muniain 4' yellowcard
  • Daniel Vivian 67' yellowcard
  • Inaki Williams 87' yellowcard
  • goal Rodrygo 28'
  • goal Jude Bellingham 36'
  • yellowcard David Alaba 76'
La Liga Gameweek 38
Real Madrid
Jun 4, 2023 5.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Athletic Bilbao
  • Karim Benzema 72' goal
  • goal Oihan Sancet 49'

Form Data

Sevilla 0 - 1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2 - 0 Real Oviedo
Barcelona 2 - 0 Real Madrid
Espanyol 0 - 2 Real Madrid
Betis 1 - 1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2 - 1 Alaves
Athletic Bilbao 1 - 1 Celta Vigo
Espanyol 2 - 0 Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao 0 - 1 Valencia
Alaves 2 - 4 Athletic Bilbao
Atletico 3 - 2 Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao 1 - 0 Osasuna

Build-up

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