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[monks data]
Lazio logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 20, 2020 at 8pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Dortmund logo

Lazio
3 - 1
Dortmund

Immobile (6'), Hitz (23' og.), Akpa-Akpro (76')
Alberto (42'), Strakosha (84')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Braut Haaland (71')
Reyna (62'), Delaney (62')

Preview: Lazio vs. Borussia Dortmund - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League match between Lazio and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Lazio host Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League on Tuesday as Europe's elite competition returns for another exciting campaign.

It will be the first time the hosts have taken part in the Champions League group stage since the 2007-08 season. Dortmund, meanwhile, are set to compete for the fifth consecutive campaign.


Match preview

Lazio striker Ciro Immobile pictured in February 2020© Reuters

After guiding Lazio to fourth place last campaign, finishing only five points behind champions Juventus in the end, it has been a more difficult start for Simone Inzaghi's side this time around.

Indeed, Biancocelesti sit 13th in the Serie A table after picking up just four points from four games. They were humbled 3-0 at Claudio Ranieri's Sampdoria on Saturday.

Striker Ciro Immobile won the European Golden Shoe last season with an astonishing 36 league goals, which was the first time a player other than Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo or Luis Suarez had won the award since Diego Forlan did so in 2008-09.

However, the Italy international has only scored once this season and missed the defeat to Sampdoria having been sent off in the previous match against Inter Milan, so he will be more motivated than ever to get back to scoring ways with his former club heading to Rome.

The 30-year-old spent a season with Dortmund in the 2014-15 campaign, scoring only three league goals in 24 appearances as the German side plummeted to finish seventh in Jurgen Klopp's last season at the club.

It would be fair to say that neither individual has looked back since, though, with Klopp achieving great success at Liverpool and Immobile scoring an incredible 125 goals in his four full seasons so far at Lazio.

Borussia Dortmund head coach Lucien Favre pictured on October 17, 2020© Reuters

It has been a much smoother ride for Lucien Favre's Dortmund in the Bundesliga, with Saturday's excellent 1-0 win at Hoffenheim taking them up to third in the table with three wins and a loss after four matches.

Erling Braut Haaland and Marco Reus both came off the bench in the weekend's win, with Reus scoring the decisive winner in the 76th minute, which suggested Favre may have had an eye on this forthcoming Champions League fixture.

With Zenit St Petersburg and Club Brugge drawn alongside these two sides in Group F, BVB are in the relatively unusual position of being heavy favourites to win a favourable looking group.

Laying down a marker at the Stadio Olimpico, then, may be an important step on the path to living up to that billing and safely progressing to the knockout stages.

Lazio form (all competitions): WLDL

Borussia Dortmund Champions League form: WLWW
Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions): WWLLWW


Team News

Lazio manager Simone Inzaghi pictured in July 2020© Reuters

Inzaghi will be without captain Senad Lulic (ankle), Andreas Pereira (illness), Silvio Proto (arm) and Stefan Radu (hamstring) for the visit of Dortmund.

Bastos and Manuel Lazzari are also doubtful due to hamstring issues, with Luiz Felipe struggling with an ankle injury.

Immobile will almost certainly come back into the attack, leaving Inzaghi with Felipe Caicedo and Angel Correa to choose between to partner his most reliable goalscorer.

Dortmund are without Marcel Schmelzer (ankle), Nico Schulz (calf) and Dan-Axel Zagadou (knee), with Thorgan Hazard and Lukasz Piszczek unlikely to shake off their recent knocks in time for the trip to Rome.

Reus and Haaland should come into the front three alongside Jadon Sancho, with Giovanni Reyna and Julian Brandt dropping to the bench. Young England prospect Jude Bellingham will be hoping to make his Champions League debut in midfield alongside the experienced Axel Witsel.

Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Patric, Acerbi, Hoedt; Parolo, Leiva, Milinkovic-Savic, Alberto, Marusic; Immobile, Correa

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Burki; Can, Hummels, Akanji; Meunier, Bellingham, Witsel, Guerreiro; Sancho, Reus; Haaland


SM words green background

We say: Lazio 1-3 Borussia Dortmund

With Dortmund boasting considerably more experience at this level of European competition, and heading into the match in considerably better form than their opponents, we think they have enough to start their campaign with a win.

Haaland being rested at the weekend should allow him to make several runs in beyond which will terrify a suspect Lazio backline. They conceded four at home to Atalanta earlier in the season and Dortmund are capable of doing similar offensive damage on their day.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 47.51%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 31.63% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.88%) and 2-3 (5.02%). The likeliest Lazio win was 2-1 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.


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Game History

Who will win Tuesday's Champions League clash between Lazio and Borussia Dortmund?

Lazio
10.0%
Draw
10.0%
Borussia Dortmund
80.0%
10
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League Phase

TeamPWDLPTS
1Liverpool440012
2Sporting Lisbon431010
3Brest431010
4Inter Milan431010
5Monaco431010
6Barcelona43019
7Dortmund43019
8Aston Villa43019
9Atalanta42208
10Juventus42117
11Lille42117
12Man City42117
13Arsenal42117
14B. Leverkusen42117
15Celtic42117
16Dinamo Zagreb42117
17AC Milan42026
18Bayern42026
19Benfica42026
20Feyenoord42026
21Real Madrid42026
22Brugge42026
23Atletico42026
24PSV41215
25Sparta Prague41124
26Stuttgart41124
27PSG41124
28Shakhtar41124
29Girona41033
30Salzburg41033
31Bologna40131
32RB Leipzig40040
33Sturm Graz40040
34Young Boys40040
35Red Star40040
36Slovan Bratislava40040


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