Lille will endeavour to make it four Ligue 1 games unbeaten when they welcome Clermont to the Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Sunday afternoon.
The faltering champions won the mid-table battle with Lyon 1-0 in gameweek 26, while their visitors rescued a 1-1 draw at home to fellow strugglers Bordeaux.
Match preview
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Twelve months after both teams were involved in a heated four-way battle for supremacy in France's top flight, Lyon welcomed reigning champions Lille to the Groupama Stadium with both sides languishing in mid-table after wholly disappointing campaigns.
Les Dogues would draw first blood in the 35th minute as Gabriel Gudmundsson capitalised on Thiago Mendes's error to smash home at the back stick, and Lyon thought they had restored parity through Lucas Paqueta in the second period, but the goal was chalked off by VAR following a foul on Leo Jardim.
Whisper it quietly, but Lille may be starting to push for a European place, with Jocelyn Gourvennec's side rising to eighth in the table and now just four points adrift of Strasbourg and Rennes in the continental spots, but they can forget about any slim hopes of defending their crown.
A top-five finish is realistically the only achievable aim for Lille this term, with Les Dogues taking on Chelsea in the second leg of their Champions League last-16 battle on March 16 after losing 2-0 in the first leg, but they have taken a respectable seven points from their last nine in Ligue 1.
Three successive clean sheets in the top flight also serves as cause for optimism for this Lille side, although they have only won two of their last eight on home soil and have not become renowned for goal-laden showings in the past few weeks.
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Clermont's battle with Bordeaux was certainly not at the top of the billing last week, and the home crowd at the Stade Gabriel-Montpied witnessed their side fall behind within the first 13 minutes as Joshua Guilavogui headed home for Les Girondins.
However, Bordeaux's lead lasted for all of 19 minutes against Pascal Gastien's side, as Elbasan Rashani bagged his sixth league goal of the season in some style to restore parity - meeting Akim Zedadka's cross with a glorious first-time finish into the far corner.
Victories over Rennes, Nice and Marseille in 2022 have made the rest of the league stand up and take notice of Clermont, but dropping two points against the hapless Girondins was a harsh reality check for a newly-promoted side whose top-flight destiny remains in their own hands.
Clermont enter gameweek 27 down in 15th in the table but still comfortably six points clear of each of the bottom three sides, and they have won their last two away games in Ligue 1 without conceding, so a Lille side who are not the force they once were must have their wits about them on Sunday.
Recent history suggests that a shock result is not beyond the realm of possibility, as Clermont claimed a 1-0 win over Lille back in October courtesy of a Vital N'Simba strike, but a trip to the champions' turf is a daunting prospect for any side.
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Team News
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Lille lynchpin Benjamin Andre is back from a one-game ban served at the Groupama Stadium, which could spell trouble for Xeka's spot in the middle of the park.
Gourvennec has very little to worry about on the injury front, but Burak Yilmaz's groin issue could keep him sidelined once again, which would mean another start for Hatem Ben Arfa.
An almost identical XI could see Gudmundsson feature further up the field on the left flank after his well-taken goal at Lyon, and Jonathan David will hope to snap a seven-game streak without a goal in Ligue 1.
As for Clermont, Gastien should have all of his troops fit and raring to go for the trip to the Stade Pierre-Mauroy, with right-back Alidu Seidu now back from a one-game suspension.
However, the 21-year-old has very little chance of displacing Zedadka after his inch-perfect cross for Rashani's goal last time out, and an unchanged XI could therefore be on the cards.
Lille possible starting lineup:
Jardim; Celik, Fonte, Botman, Djalo; Andre, Sanches; Bamba, Ben Arfa, Gudmundsson; David
Clermont possible starting lineup:
Djoco; Zedadka, Hountondji, Ogier, N'Simba; Magnin, Gastien, Abdul Samed; Da Cunha, Bayo, Rashani
We say: Lille 2-0 Clermont
With David enduring a dry spell in front of goal and Lille flattering to deceive in front of their own fans in recent weeks, the stage could be set for another shock Clermont victory.
However, the visitors are fighting an uphill battle to break down this staunch Dogues backline, and we expect the champions' defensive resilience to see them through to a routine success, so long as they can discover some sort of attacking bite.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 57.2%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Clermont had a probability of 18.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Clermont win it was 0-1 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
