Lithuania are set to host Estonia at the Darius and Girenas Stadium in the final of the Baltic Cup on Tuesday.
The home side are aiming to secure their 11th title, while their opponents are hoping to win their fifth.
Match preview
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Lithuania beat Latvia 2-0 last Saturday to book their place in the Baltic Cup final for the first time since 2016, an impressive turnaround considering they had finished last in 2022's iteration.
Of the three permanent members of the tournament, the hosts have won the second-most titles with 10, but in the 21st century they have only won twice in 11 attempts.
Lithuania finished second from bottom in their Euro 2024 qualifying group with six points, winning just once in eight games.
Having said that, the home side's recent form has been positive and they have won three consecutive fixtures without conceding ahead of Tuesday's clash.
Prior to this run Lithuania had only won three of 24 games, a stretch of matches that included 13 losses.
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Manager Edgaras Jankauskas represented the national team for almost 20 years as a footballer and previously coached the side between 2016 and 2018.
Jankauskas returned to the role in 2023 and has a 31% win rate from his 13 games in charge, significantly higher than the 13% he achieved in his first stint, when he managed the side 30 times.
As for Estonia, in their most recent game last Saturday they defeated tournament guests Faroe Islands 4-1 in the first stage of the biennial competition to secure a spot in the final for a third consecutive time.
In that match, Faroe Islands went 1-0 ahead after 24 minutes but the home side equalised before half time and went on to impressively score three second-half goals.
However, despite winning last time out, the Blueshirts have struggled for results and have lost 12 of their previous 15 fixtures including six of their most recent seven.
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In fact, Estonia's win over Faroe Islands is their only win in their last 15, and in that time they have scored just seven goals while conceding 41 times.
Manager Jurgen Henn has only been in place since early June after previously working as assistant to former coach Thomas Haberli, who left before the start of the Baltic Cup.
Interestingly, though Henn's contract runs until 2027 he could extend his stay with the national side due to an automatic extension clause that activates should Estonia make it to either the 2028 European Championship qualifying round or the finals themselves.
Team News
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The hosts will likely field Edvinas Girdvainis in the heart of defence for his second start since being sent off against Gibraltar in March.
Elsewhere, Armandas Kucys is certain to start in the forward line after scoring a goal and starring in Lithuania's victory against Latvia in the previous round of the Baltic Cup.
As for the away side, new manager Henn is unlikely to make too many changes to the side that defeated Faroe Islands.
With this in mind, the likes of Alex Matthias Tamm and Henri Anier can be expected to start in the forward line, while Rocco Robert Shein and Mihkel Ainsalu could continue their partnership at the base of midfield.
Lithuania possible starting lineup:
Gertmonas; Lekiatas, Girdvainis, Servys; Lasickas, Vorobjovas, Golubickas, Romanovskij; Novikovas, Kucys, Cernych
Estonia possible starting lineup:
Hein; Larsen, Kuusk, Mets, Paskotsi; Miller, Ainsalu, Shein, Saarma; Anier, Tamm
We say: Lithuania 2-1 Estonia
Lithuania's good form should see them come into the match as favourites, especially considering that they have been strong defensively in their recent outings.
Contrastingly, Estonia have been porous defensively as of late, and this could see them struggle in the final.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
