Despite dropping their first Ligue 1 fixture of 2022 last weekend, 2-0 away to Monaco, Lyon still have an opportunity to extend their unbeaten run at Groupama Stadium to six consecutive matches in all competitions when hosting Nice on Saturday.
Les Gones are eighth in the table heading into this weekend with 34 points, three back of a European place next season, while Nice advanced to the semi-finals of the Coupe de France on Wednesday, defeating Marseille 4-1.
Match preview
© Reuters
A poor opening 45 minutes at Stade Louis II last Saturday was all it took for Peter Bosz and his side to see their seven-game unbeaten streak in the league come to an end, as they made some critical errors versus Les Monegasques and could not recover from an early two-goal deficit.
By no means were they dominated in the Principality, winning a good number of their duels and having 64% possession, but they lacked precision in the final third when a chance fell their way.
They have been clinical at Groupama Stadium, scoring in each of their last 21 domestic encounters played there (41 goals), the longest current run of any top-flight side in this competition.
Eighth-place may not be where this club had envisioned they would be at this stage of the campaign, but this team have shown a lot of resiliency over the past few seasons, always seeming to bounce back from a tough outing, as they have not suffered consecutive defeats in the top flight since dropping back-to-back games in between September and October 2019, a streak which cost then-manager Sylvinho his job.
They have relied heavily on flow and creativity to get by, stringing together plenty of passes throughout the season, the third-most in Ligue 1, behind only PSG and Marseille.
Statistically speaking, there is no individual on the squad in the top 10 in terms of goals or assists in the league, but what they do have is plenty of quick-thinking players, who are capable of generating scoring opportunities, while also showing some versatility.
© Reuters
Les Aiglons suffered an early blow in their cup tie this week, as an own goal from Melvin Bard saw them trailing after three minutes of play, but as manager Christophe Galtier put it in his post-game interviews, the players reacted perfectly, scoring twice before the half-hour mark, and putting home another two in the second half.
The three-time Ligue 1 Manager of the Year will be looking for a similar performance from his side this weekend after falling at home to Clermont 1-0 in their previous league contest, a result which dropped them down to third in the table, a point behind Marseille.
Following that defeat, Galtier noted that the timing and passing of his players was not as precise as we are used to seeing, as this group incurred a rare setback, losing a domestic encounter for the first time since December 5, when they were beaten 3-0 by Strasbourg.
Since that loss, this team have rarely found themselves behind, but on the two occasions where that has happened, they have been able to fight their way back, defeating Lens in their final game of 2021 (2-1) and scoring four unanswered goals versus Les Olympiens.
Against Clermont, it appears as though Galtier did not play his typical side, perhaps in preparation for their midweek cup tie, but with a Champions League place within reach, some members of his squad could be playing on short rest in this encounter.
It is no surprise to see this team looking consistently sharp both on and off the ball, having shown a ton of poise and control away from home, conceding only once in their previous six road matches in all competitions.
- D
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Karl Toko Ekambi could be back for this game after the Lyon striker helped Cameroon capture third place at the Africa Cup of Nations a week ago, Damien Da Silva and Jason Denayer have ankle injuries, Lenny Pintor and Jeff Reine-Adelaide are nursing ACL issues, Tino Kadewere has a muscle problem and Rayan Cherki is not expected back until May at the earliest after suffering a broken foot.
Anthony Lopes, who leads the league in saves with 75, conceded multiple goals in a game for the first time since December 5 as his former teammate and current Monaco midfielder Jean Lucas put one past him in the second minute last Saturday, with the other strike coming from the top goalscorer in the league Wissam Ben Yedder.
Tanguy Ndombele, who returned to Lyon on loan from Tottenham Hotspur, made his first appearance for L'OL this season in that encounter, replacing Thiago Mendes in the second half, while Romain Faivre, who was signed from Brest, came on for Malo Gusto, earning his first cap with his new club.
A brace from Justin Kluivert, plus a goal from Amine Gouiri and Andy Delort, helped Nice erase an early deficit against Marseille this week, while Marcin Bulka only faced two shots and was aided by some fine defensive work from Flavius Daniliuc, Jean-Clair Todibo, Dante and Melvin Bard.
Walter Benitez is expected to miss this match as he continues to recover from his positive COVID test, while Jordan Amavi has an issue with his knee.
In their previous meeting with Lyon back in October, Nice erased a 2-0 deficit with three goals in the final 10 minutes plus stoppage time as Youcef Atal, Delort and Evann Guessand all found the back of the net.
Lyon possible starting lineup:
Lopes; Lukeba, Boateng, Dubois; Henrique, Ndombele, Caqueret, Faivre; Emerson, Keita; Dembele
Nice possible starting lineup:
Bulka; Atal, Daniliuc, Dante, Lotomba; Boudaoui, Schneiderlin, Thuram, Kluivert; Delort, Gouiri
We say: Lyon 1-1 Nice
Olympique Lyonnais have not been shut out of a competitive fixture since losing 2-0 to Monaco in the quarter-finals of the Coupe de France last year, but they have only scored multiple goals in one of their previous six games played in all competitions.
Nice are coming off an impressive showing in midweek, and we expect to see plenty of determination from them in this encounter, although fatigue might be an issue for them at some point, and with both teams fighting hard to earn a place in Europe next season, we do not expect to see either side to concede many opportunities.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 62.2%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Nice had a probability of 16.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.33%), while for a Nice win it was 0-1 (5.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
