Bayer Leverkusen will look to continue their Bundesliga charge when they travel to the MEWA Arena to take on one of this season's surprise packages, Mainz 05.
The hosts continue to exceed expectations, currently sitting ninth in the table, whilst the visitors turned a corner at the start of 2022 and are now clearly part of a top three.
Match preview
© Reuters
Mainz suffered a slight blip with five defeats in the space of six games - although one of those was only a friendly - but have perhaps regained their momentum in the past two games.
A 2-0 win at home to Hoffenheim was followed up by a solid draw against fellow overachievers Freiburg at the weekend, Alexander Hack's opener being cancelled out by Nils Petersen.
The four points taken from those two matches have kept Bo Svensson's side in amongst the incredible battle for this season's Bundesliga spots.
No fewer than seven teams are covered by just three points between fourth and 10th in the table, with Mainz defying expectations of another relegation battle as they sit in ninth on 31 points.
As one of the teams with the better goal difference in that pack, they could theoretically move all the way up to fifth - or, mathematically at least, fourth - if results were to go their way this weekend.
© Reuters
One team they will not be able to catch is Leverkusen, who are seven points clear of the battle for fourth and even beginning to close up on the big two.
They are currently the division's form side, winning their last four consecutive games and undefeated since the turn of the year.
Those results have moved them away from the pack and they now sit just five points shy of Borussia Dortmund in second, as the country's dominant forces - BVB and Bayern Munich - have slipped to a shock defeat each in the past fortnight.
A push for the title remains unrealistic but Gerardo Seoane and his men will feel invincible and probably like they could beat anybody right now.
They will certainly fancy their chances against a Mainz side they have triumphed against in five of their last six encounters.
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Defender Jeremiah St Juste is Mainz's only injury absentee, with Svensson otherwise having a full complement of players to choose from.
Up front, Jonathan Burkardt has gone from seven goals in 11 Bundesliga games to none in his last eight and will be desperate to end that barren run before he finds himself on the bench.
One striker not struggling to find the net is Leverkusen's Patrik Schick - the Austrian made it 11 goals in his last nine games and 19 for the season with his side's fourth in their 4-2 win over Stuttgart.
Moussa Diaby has also been in amongst the goals, with five over the course of Die Werkself's four-game winning streak, and he will sit in the attacking three behind Schick.
Mitchel Bakker serves a one-match ban for his fifth yellow card of the campaign, with Piero Hincapie likely moving to left-back as a result, whilst Karim Bellarabi is out through illness.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Bell, Hack, Niakhate; Widmer, Barreiro, Kohr, Martin; Lee; Onisiwo, Burkardt
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Frimpong, Tah, Tapsoba, Hincapie; Andrich, Demirbay; Adli, Wirtz, Diaby; Schick
We say: Mainz 05 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen
Whilst Mainz have been very impressive this season, and appear to have rediscovered some form in February, a rampant Bayer side will surely prove too much for them. The visitors do not have the strongest defence in the league so we can see Mainz getting on the scoreboard, but it will likely be two or three for Leverkusen.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 38.62%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 36.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.04%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.
