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Mainz logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 33
Jun 20, 2020 at 2.30pm UK
Opel Arena
Werder Bremen logo

Mainz 05
3 - 1
Werder Bremen

Quaison (25'), Boetius (30'), Fernandes (85')
Quaison (40'), Boetius (57')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Osako (58')
Veljkovic (22'), Friedl (35'), Augustinsson (63')

Preview: Mainz 05 vs. Werder Bremen - predictions, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen, including team news and predicted lineups.

Two of the Bundesliga's relegation candidates will face off in a crunch match on Saturday as Mainz 05 prepare to host Werder Bremen at the Opel Arena.

The teams are separated by six points in the table, with Mainz just above the relegation zone in 15th, while Bremen occupy 17th spot ahead of the penultimate weekend of the season.


Match preview

Mainz 05 coach Achim Beierlorzer pictured in December 2019© Reuters

Mainz's survival hopes received a huge boost on Wednesday evening as they travelled to Borussia Dortmund and came away from the Westfalenstadion with all three points.

BVB's full-strength lineup had no reply to goals from Jonathan Burkardt and Jean-Philippe Mateta, and that 2-0 victory has all but secured Mainz's Bundesliga status for another season.

Indeed, Achim Beierlorzer's side sit six points above Bremen before their clash on Saturday, and they are five clear of Fortuna Dusseldorf, who occupy the relegation playoff spot.

Dusseldorf just about kept their hopes of staying up alive with a dramatic comeback against RB Leipzig, but a Mainz victory here would seal the fate of Dusseldorf and Bremen with bottom side Paderborn already down and out.

However, Mainz have lost their last three matches at home without finding the back of the net, although they should be brimming with confidence following that impressive victory at Dortmund.

Werder Bremen's Leonardo Bittencourt pictured on May 30, 2020© Reuters

As if Bayern Munich winning the title in Bremen's own backyard was not painful enough, their 1-0 loss to the champions has practically confirmed Bremen's bottom-three finish with two gameweeks left of the season.

Florian Kohfeldt's side are six points adrift of safety at this very late stage of the campaign, with their 5-1 thrashing of basement side Paderborn proving inconsequential.

Victories at Freiburg and Schalke when the league resumed led some fans to believe that Bremen could produce a great escape, but it would take something truly remarkable to preserve their Bundesliga status now.

Kohfeldt's side have not been condemned to an automatic relegation just yet; Bremen are only one point behind Dusseldorf in the playoff spot so there is still a chance of survival for Die Werderaner, albeit a very slim one.

Bremen have not played outside the German top flight since the 1980-81 season, but anything apart from a win this weekend and the four-time Bundesliga champions may as well start making preparations for life in the second division next year.

Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: LDLWDW

Werder Bremen Bundesliga form: DWLLWL


Team News

RB Leipzig's Lukas Klostermann and Mainz 05's Robin Quaison in action in May 2020© Reuters

Edimilson Fernandes is back in the fold following a one-match suspension and has a chance to return to the Mainz midfield.

Die Nullfunfer are still without goalkeeper Robin Zentner, and forward Taiwo Awoniyi is unlikely to feature following a neck injury.

With regards to Bremen, Omer Toprak, Kevin Vogt and Kevin Mohwald are all sidelined, while Nuri Sahin and Ludwig Augustinsson are both doubts with hip injuries.

Kohfeldt will likely stick with a three-man defence, with Sebastian Langkamp set to slot in alongside Milos Veljkovic and Niklas Moisander.

Striker Joshua Sargent came off the bench for the final 30 minutes against Bayern, but the American could feature from the opening whistle on Saturday.

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Muller; Baku, St. Juste, Niakhate, Martin; Latza, Kunde; Burkardt, Quaison, Onisiwo; Mateta

Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Veljkovic, Langkamp, Moisander; Gebre Selassie, Eggestein, Klaassen, Friedl; Bittencourt; Rashica, Sargent


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Mainz 05 2-1 Werder Bremen

Bremen actually performed pretty well against Bayern and gave the champions a good run for their money, but Mainz's victory over second-placed Dortmund was an incredible feat and we expect the home side to build upon that win with another three points and confirm their top-flight status.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 42.14%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.


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Davy Klaassen in action for Everton on May 13, 2018
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202


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